Now that we closed Q2 and the first half of 2009, let's take a forward look. Will history give us any signs for the months ahead? Here are the historical averages for the Dow , S&P and Nasdaq for July, Q3, and H2. Historically and on average, the Dow has fared best of the major indices in July, Q3 and H2.
Second Half of the Year - Market Stats:
- Dow: (Since 1897)
- On average the Dow has gained 3.88% in the second half of the year
- The biggest gain in the second ½ of the year was on 1928, when the Dow finished up 42.61%
- The biggest loss in the second ½ of the year was on 1931, when the Dow finished down -48.13%
- S&P: (Since 1928)
- On average the S&P has gained 3.4% in the second half of the year
- The biggest gain in the second ½ of the year was on 1932, when the S&P finished up 56.21%
- The biggest loss in the second ½ of the year was on 1931, when the S&P finished down -45.25%
- Nasdaq: (Since 1971)
- On average the Nasdaq has gained 2.91% in the second half of the year
- The biggest gain in the second ½ of the year was on 1999, when the Nasdaq finished up 51.5%
- The biggest loss in the second ½ of the year was on 2000, when the Nasdaq finished down -37.71%
Third Quarter - Market Stats:
- Dow:
- On average the Dow has gained 1.51% in the third quarter
- The biggest gain in the third quarter was on 1932, when the Dow finished up 67.04%
- The biggest loss in the third quarter was on 1931, when the Dow finished down -35.67%
- S&P:
- On average the S&P has gained 1.15% in the third quarter
- The biggest gain in the third quarter was on 1932, when the S&P finished up 82.39%
- The biggest loss in the third quarter was on 1931, when the S&P finished down -34.52%
- Nasdaq:
- On average the Nasdaq has declined -0.79% in the third quarter
- The biggest gain in the third quarter was on 1980, when the Nasdaq finished up 19%
- The biggest loss the third quarter was on 2001, when the Nasdaq finished down -30.65%
Market Stats for July:
- Dow:
- On average the Dow has gained 1.26% in July
- The best July was on 1932, when the Dow finished up 25.79%
- The worst July on 1903, when the Dow finished down -14.08%
- S&P:
- On average the S&P has gained 1.4% in July
- The best July was on 1932, when the S&P finished up 36.12%
- The worst July on 1934, when the S&P finished down -11.52%
- Nasdaq:
- On average the Nasdaq has declined -0.35% in July
- The best July was on 1997, when the Nasdaq finished up 10.53%
- The worst July on 2002, when the Nasdaq finished down -9.22%
Despite a worse than expected jobs number from ADP, the futures are pointing up this morning. Leading the Dow in the premarket are American Express , Kraft , Caterpillar , Coca Cola , and Alcoa .
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