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Historical Averages for July, Q3 and the Second Half

Now that we closed Q2 and the first half of 2009, let's take a forward look. Will history give us any signs for the months ahead? Here are the historical averages for the Dow , S&P and Nasdaq for July, Q3, and H2. Historically and on average, the Dow has fared best of the major indices in July, Q3 and H2.

Second Half of the Year - Market Stats:

  • Dow: (Since 1897)
    • On average the Dow has gained 3.88% in the second half of the year
    • The biggest gain in the second ½ of the year was on 1928, when the Dow finished up 42.61%
    • The biggest loss in the second ½ of the year was on 1931, when the Dow finished down -48.13%
  • S&P: (Since 1928)
    • On average the S&P has gained 3.4% in the second half of the year
    • The biggest gain in the second ½ of the year was on 1932, when the S&P finished up 56.21%
    • The biggest loss in the second ½ of the year was on 1931, when the S&P finished down -45.25%
  • Nasdaq: (Since 1971)
    • On average the Nasdaq has gained 2.91% in the second half of the year
    • The biggest gain in the second ½ of the year was on 1999, when the Nasdaq finished up 51.5%
    • The biggest loss in the second ½ of the year was on 2000, when the Nasdaq finished down -37.71%

Third Quarter - Market Stats:

  • Dow:
    • On average the Dow has gained 1.51% in the third quarter
    • The biggest gain in the third quarter was on 1932, when the Dow finished up 67.04%
    • The biggest loss in the third quarter was on 1931, when the Dow finished down -35.67%
  • S&P:
    • On average the S&P has gained 1.15% in the third quarter
    • The biggest gain in the third quarter was on 1932, when the S&P finished up 82.39%
    • The biggest loss in the third quarter was on 1931, when the S&P finished down -34.52%
  • Nasdaq:
    • On average the Nasdaq has declined -0.79% in the third quarter
    • The biggest gain in the third quarter was on 1980, when the Nasdaq finished up 19%
    • The biggest loss the third quarter was on 2001, when the Nasdaq finished down -30.65%

Market Stats for July:

  • Dow:
    • On average the Dow has gained 1.26% in July
    • The best July was on 1932, when the Dow finished up 25.79%
    • The worst July on 1903, when the Dow finished down -14.08%
  • S&P:
    • On average the S&P has gained 1.4% in July
    • The best July was on 1932, when the S&P finished up 36.12%
    • The worst July on 1934, when the S&P finished down -11.52%
  • Nasdaq:
    • On average the Nasdaq has declined -0.35% in July
    • The best July was on 1997, when the Nasdaq finished up 10.53%
    • The worst July on 2002, when the Nasdaq finished down -9.22%

Despite a worse than expected jobs number from ADP, the futures are pointing up this morning. Leading the Dow in the premarket are American Express , Kraft , Caterpillar , Coca Cola , and Alcoa .

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