Q2 Earnings:  Alcoa By the Numbers

With the official start of earnings season kicking off after the bell today, here are some stats on Alcoa and the rest of the Dow.

EPS in the past 12 Quarters...

  • Alcoa
    • missed estimates 50% of the time
    • beat estimates 42% of the time
    • met estimates 8% of the time
  • Compared to current Dow 30
    • missed 19% of the time
    • beat 70% of the time
    • met 11% of the time

Best earnings track records of the Dow 30:
JNJ - Beat 100% of time in the past 12 qtrs
CSCO, IBM, JPM, KO, TRV, UTX - All beat 92% of time in the past 12 qtrs

Worst track records of the Dow 30:
T - Only beat 33% of time in the past 12 qtrs
AA, CAT - Only beat 42% of time in the past 12 qtrs

More on Alcoa:

  • Q2 is forecast to be 3rd consecutive losing quarter @ -$0.38/sh, $3.9b Rev Est -48% y/y
  • Q3 Q4 FY also currently forecast to be losers
  • Smallest member (by market cap) of the Dow Industrials @ $9.1b
    • 1/2 the size of #29 Caterpillar
    • 1/35 the size of Exxon
  • Smallest weighting in Dow @ ~0.9% based on $9.60 share price
  • HOT and COLD
    • "Top 5" Performer Since March Trough +79%
    • "Bottom 5" Performer Past 4 weeks -13%
    • Dead Last 1 Yr -73%
  • Since Q1 Results 4/7/09
    • Alcoa +21%
    • Dow Industrials +5.5%
  • Largest Short Interest in Dow at 7.7% of float
  • Top 3 Shareholders, as of Q1 filings
    • Capital Group 8.5%
    • State Street 4.2%
    • Fidelity 3.2%

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