The most recent reports on consumer prices, New York manufacturing, industrial production and mortgage applications each provided hope for the economy. So can investors regard these signs as indicators that the recession may be over? Chief economists Dan North at Euler Hermes ACI and Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services offered their views.
“I think the evidence is fairly clear, for instance if you look at non-farm payrolls, that we bottomed out in January,” North told CNBC. “If you look at the big picture, and if you believe that the non-farm payrolls are a lagging indicator, you could make an argument that we’ve reached a bottom.”
Hoffman said there are some precursors to recovery, but the bottom won’t be until the summer.
“We’re getting close,” he said. “I think we’re rounding the bottom of the recession—this quarter may actually mark the bottom of the recession. [There will be] a little momentum in the fourth quarter and even more visible—not only in the U.S., but globally—in the first half of next year.”
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