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Overshoots: Which Stock May Be Ahead Of Itself?

As you likely know, that S&P 500 is now up 48% from the March lows as bullish sentiment sweeps across the market like wildfire, largely fueled by a growing belief that the worst is behind us.

It seems nothing can stop the bulls right now.

Even with the S&P hitting the psychologically important 1,000 level this week for the first time since early November, the market did not pullback.

Instead, positive sentiment prevailed largely due two economic reports, one which showed an uptick in consumer spending and another that showed pending home sales increased for the fifth month in a row.

Investors seem eager to believe the economy is stabilizing.

And maybe it is -- but it also seems to us the euphoria is getting to be a bit much.

And just likes stocks overshot to the downside in March, they’ve probably overshot to the upside now.

But which names have gotten ahead of themselves?

TradeKing analyst Brian Overby thinks the entire airline sector is suspect but he's particularly bearish on Continental. All the airlines are at the mercy of consumer spending which is tentative but "Continental still has a ton of debt," he says.

What's the bottom line?

I expect a pullback when investors realize the debt is coming due, says Overby.


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Trader disclosure: On Aug 4th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Terranova Owns (MSFT), (RIMM), (JPM), (MS), (ABT), (MCD), (AMZN); Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Short (TM), (WFC), (WYNN), (F); Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PBR), (RIG), (PDE), (TBT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares; Finermnan's Firm Is Long (WFMI) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC), (USO), (IJR), (IYR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY); Finerman's Firm Owns (CTX); Grasso Owns (BAC), (BA), (COST), (CSCO), (FAZ), (OXY), (V), (WMT), (XLF); Grasso's Company Owns (ABT), (GERN), (MSFT), (NWS.a), (NYX), (PDE), (RDC), (ROK), (XOM), (SDS); Grasso's Company is Short (QQQQ), (CL); Grasso Owns (CSCO); Najarian Owns (AET); Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BUCY) & (BUCY) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (JPM) & (JPM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MS) & Short (MS) Calls ; Najarian Owns (MSFT) & Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (V) & Short (V) Calls; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (TCK) Calls



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