Job Losses-What Numbers Can You Trust?


Are job losses greater than those being reported?

TrimTabs, in a press release this morning, are estimating the U.S. economy lost 488,000 jobs in July, more than the estimate of 328,000 jobs lost.

The nonfarm payroll report will be released on Friday.

They also expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise its job loss estimates sharply higher for the first half of 2009, based on the latest unemployment insurance survey results.

TrimTabs' employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees.

They claim that their estimates have been more accurate than those of the BLS.

"The personal income report the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday contained huge downward revisions to wage and salary growth," said Biderman. "Now that the BEA is using unemployment insurance reports from the first quarter to estimate current wage and salary growth, its data confirms what we have been reporting for months."



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