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Anticipating the Fed

Around 2:15 pm EST today, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make its announcement on the Fed Funds Target Rate. What may we expect?

Since the historic cut down to a range of 0.0 to 0.25% set last December, today's announcement will come after the 9th FOMC meeting or the year including three unscheduled meetings (a normal year has 8 FOMC meetings between January and December). Most economists and traders are not expecting any change in rates today as well but will listen for comments on the economy's direction. As you can see from the chart below, the Fed continued to cut rates after the previous recessions (depicted in grey bands) had already ended. In both the 1990-91 and the 2001 recessions, the Fed waited well over a year before they began raising rates.

The current streak is the longest without rate decisions since September 2007 when the Fed first began cutting rates after 10 straight meetings without a change. Back then, the Fed Funds went from 5.25% to 4.75%.

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