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Summer's Over, Now What?

Historically and on average, the U.S. Markets have been down on the week after Labor Day and continued to downtrend from Labor Day to Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq Composite has averaged best of the major indices for the period of Labor Day through Thanksgiving, up an average of 0.32 % and up 52.6% of the time, while the Dow & S&P have average losses of -0.36% and -0.74% for the same period.

Here is a look at the major U.S. Indexes 1-week after Labor Day and almost three months after until Thanksgiving.

Dow (Since 1900):

  • 1 Week after Labor Day:
    o Avg. loss of -0.16%
    o Up 48.1% of the time when it gained an avg. of 1.74%, down 51.9% of the time when it fell an avg. -1.93%
    o Biggest gain 14.7% in 1939
    o Biggest drop -9.07% in 1946
  • Labor Day (As of Friday’s Close) to Thanksgiving:
    o Avg. loss of -0.36%
    o Up 53.7% of the time when it gained an avg. of 7.04%, down 46.3% of the time when it fell an avg. -8.9%
    o Biggest gain 26.73% in 1904
    o Biggest drop -37.2% in 1929

S&P 500 (Since 1928):

  • 1 Week after Labor Day:
    o Avg. loss of -0.37%
    o Up 45.7% of the time when it gained an avg. of 1.8%, down 53.1% of the time when it fell an avg. -2.2%, and flat 1.2% of the time in 1936
    o Biggest gain 13.98% in 1939
    o Biggest drop -9.85% in 1946
  • Labor Day (As of Friday’s Close) to Thanksgiving:
    o Avg. loss of -0.74%
    o Up 53.1% of the time when it gained an avg. of 6.45%, down 46.9% of the time when it fell an avg. -8.9%
    o Biggest gain 21.9% in 1998
    o Biggest drop -34.2% in 1937

Nasdaq Composite (Since 1971):

  • 1 Week after Labor Day:
    o Avg. loss of -0.04%
    o Up 47.4% of the time when it gained an avg. of 2.1%, down 52.6% of the time when it fell an avg. -1.96%
    o Biggest gain 6.3% in 1998
    o Biggest drop -7.98% in 2000
  • Labor Day (As of Friday’s Close) to Thanksgiving:
    o Avg. gain of 0.32%
    o Up 52.6% of the time when it gained an avg. of 9.3%, down 47.4% of the time when it fell an avg. -9.6%
    o Biggest gain 26.73% in 1998
    o Biggest drop -35.3% in 2008

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