As the Street grows more optimistic, one bear is growing more confident that a sharp correction is all but inevitable.
We’re talking about perma-bear Doug Kass. If you watch Fast Money regularly or you read The Street, you’re familiar with Kass. He’s a widely respected strategist who called the stock market bottom back in March.
Now we’re well aware that Kass is anything but an optimist but we can’t ignore his bearish outlook considering how accurate he's been in the past.
And he's telling Fast Money things are about to take a sharp turn for the worse. “I think there’s some whistling past the graveyard," going on in the market right now. "Warning signs are being ignored or are being rationalized away in a tide of rising world stock prices.”
Here's what's got Kass concerned:
1. Unsustainable housing demand
2. U.S. rail traffic rolling over
3. Weak consumer sentiment
4. Higher inflation
"I think what happens in the maturing stages of a bull market is that the demarcation line between fantasy and progress gets blurred a bit," he says.
In other words, investors are growing more comfortable with forecasts of a smooth recovery. "Many have even adopted the view that we’re in a normal multi-year recovery, which typically lasts 45 months."
But Kass doesn't see events playing out that way. He thinks once stimulus is removed from the equation the recovery will unravel.
"There’s no message in the market that leads me to change my thesis," he says.
What do you think? We want to know!
