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Friday the 13th - A Lucky Day for the Markets?

The U.S. equity markets have managed to edge higher this morning despite weak Consumer Sentiment data, as Friday the 13th tends to be luckier than you might think. Historically and on average, the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq Composite have been up more often than not on this superstitious day. The Nasdaq Composite has fared best amongst the three indexes as it has traded up 61% of the time with an average gain of 0.23%.

So far this year there has been 3 occurrences when the markets have traded on Friday the 13th (2/13 and 3/13, as well as today) versus only 1 day in 2008 on 6/13/2008. If the markets closed in positive territory today, it will mark the second time this year that the markets have been up on Friday the 13th for the day. See below for historical averages for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq on Friday the 13th.

Dow since 1896:

  • Friday the 13th:
    o Avg. gain of 0.02%
    o Up 58% of the time when it gained an avg. of 0.68%, down 40% of the time when it fell an avg. -0.91%, and flat ~2% in 4/13/2001, 1/13/1956, & 6/13/1902
    o Biggest gain 2.66% in 12/13/1929
    o Biggest drop -6.91% in 10/13/1989

S&P since1928:

  • Friday the 13th:
    o Avg. gain of 0.04%
    o Up 59% of the time when it gained an avg. of 0.65% , down 41% of the time when it fell an avg. -0.84%
    o Biggest gain 3.34% in 10/13/2000
    o Biggest drop -6.11% in 10/13/1989

Nasdaq Composite since 1971:

  • Friday the 13th:
    o Avg. gain of 0.23%
    o Up 61% of the time when it gained an avg. of 0.83 % , down 39% of the time when it fell an avg. -0.73%
    o Biggest gain 7.87% in 10/13/2000
    o Biggest drop -3.09% in 10/13/1989

Leading the Dow higher today are: Disney , McDonald's, IBM , Exxon Mobil , and United Technologies .

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