Cramer: Next Week Should Define Rest of ‘09

Thanksgiving week historically has been strong, Cramer said during Friday’s Stop Trading!, and stocks’ performance then should give some sign of what’s to come for the rest of the year.

The Mad Money host said that he thinks the sellers are taking a break and none of Wall Street’s money managers want to appear as if they’re not heavily invested in stocks. While Cramer isn’t expecting a rally, he doubts the market will suffer a major decline.

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“I’m betting that we do not get ‘the long-awaited correction’” that many pundits expect, Cramer said.

What could boost the market, though, is a falling dollar.

“If you told me that the dollar’s going to be weak for the rest of the year,” Cramer said, “I’m telling you we will break out higher.”

In technology, the personal-computer business is in tough shape. At least that’s what Dell seemed to be saying on its most recent conference call. Cramer recommended watching Hewlett-Packard’s earnings call on Monday for a similar statement.

“I don’t think Hewlett’s going to say that,” Cramer said.

Cramer said he’s seeing a secular trend away from Dell computers to Apple , at least in the US. There’s nothing proprietary about Dell’s products anymore, he said, calling their commoditization “worse than ever.”

Warner Chilcott’s stock is up after a secondary offering on Thursday, Cramer said, which “says good things” about the company. He predicted WCRX would benefit as strong from its acquisition of Procter & Gamble's pharmaceuticals business as much as JM Smucker did when it bought Folgers from P&G. JM Smucker reported a “blowout quarter” today.

Lastly, “The overpay trade is back,” Cramer said.

Consumers seem comfortable enough to overpay for high-end merchandise, he said, and that translate into increased business for Williams-Sonoma , Polo Ralph Lauren , Tiffany , Nordstrom and others.

The stocks of these retailers, Cramer said, are “going higher.”

Cramer's charitable trust owns Procter & Gamble.

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