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Take Your Position: Black Friday

The Retail ETF traded higher on Monday ahead of Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

And after a good turkey dinner it appears people love to shop.

Take last year for example. Over Thanksgiving week-end more than 172 million shoppers visited stores according to the National Retail Federation. The average amount of money spent by shoppers over that weekend was $372.57 per person.

Those numbers, however, did not prevent a sales slide of 3.4% for the entire shopping season last year, marking the first decline since the NRF began tracking such data.

But last year the holiday shopping season kicked off just weeks after the global financial crisis erupted. This time around shoppers have had more than a year to digest the bad news – and most now feel more secure about jobs.

Considering all the variables, how should you game retail?

We think it’s going to be a blue box Christmas, says Citi retail analyst Kimberly Greenberger. The single highest correlating factor to spending among high end consumers is stock market returns with a 3-6 month lag. Given the rally we’ve had off the march lows I think that bodes well for a high end holiday.

The acceleration that we’re likely to see in the sales trends will likely be more dramatic on the high end. As a result I really like Tiffany . And if you’re looking for a stock to avoid, I’d avoid Aeropostale , adds Greenberger.

In the space I’m watching Nordstrom as well as TJX , adds Pete Najarian. Both have climbed but I think they both continue to work.

I like Gap, says Joe Terranova. And don’t forget Amazon, as well as Visa and Mastercards .

My long trade is Children’s Place, adds Karen Finerman.

What do you think? We want to know!




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Trader disclosure: On November 23rd, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (POT), (GOOG), (AAPL); Terranova Owns (UNG) April 2010 Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (PLCE), (MSFT), (NOK), (WMT), (FLS), (PDE), (RIG), (TGT), (CDY), (ACL); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (UNG), (KFT); Finerman's Firm Owns (PEET) Call; Finerman's Firm Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC), (BAC) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Najarian Owns (AAPL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DELL) Calls; Najarian Owns (DE) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FCX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) & (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & short (LAZ) Calls; Najarian Owns (SEED) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (CLF) & Short (CLF) Calls

J. Najarian Owns (LOW)
J. Najarian Owns (UNH)

For Kimberly Greenberger
Citi Owns (ANF)
Citi Owns (AEO)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (AEO)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (ANF)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (JCG)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (URBN)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (LTD)
Citi Has Had (GPS) As A Client in Past 12 Months
Citi Has Had (TJX) As A Client in Past 12 Months
Citi Is A Market Maker in Securities of (HOTT)
Citi Is A Market Maker in Securities of (URBN)
Citi Is A Market Maker in Securities of (PLACE)
A Suit Filed by (AEO) Against Citi is Currently Pending in Federal Court


CNBC.com with wires