×

Thanksgiving & the Markets

The U.S. equity markets are relatively quiet ahead of Thanksgiving, but will there be some stock cheer the week after Black Friday and for the rest of the holiday season? Historically and on average, the U.S. Markets have been up on the week after Thanksgiving Day and continued to uptrend from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day. The Nasdaq Composite has averaged best of the major indexes for the period of Thanksgiving Day through Christmas, up an average of 1 % and up 61% of the time, while the Dow & S&Phave average gains of 0.54% & 0.56% for the same period.

>> Investors Thankful for Gains This Year

Here is a look at the major U.S. Indexes, 1-week after Thanksgiving Day and almost 1 month after until Christmas Day. So let the festivities begin!

Dow since 1900:

  • 1 Week after Thanksgiving Day:
    o Avg. gain of 0.21%
    o Up 53.7% of the time when it gained an avg. of 1.8 %, down 46.3% of the time when it fell an avg. -1.7%
    o Biggest gain 10.12% in 1937 & Biggest drop -8.75% in 1987
  • Thanksgiving Day (As of Wednesday's Close) to Christmas:
    o Avg. gain of 0.54%
    o Up 61.9% of the time when it gained an avg. of 3.04%, down 38.1% of the time when it fell an avg. -3.5%
    o Biggest gain 10.37% in 1971 & Biggest drop -19.45% in 1931

S&P since 1928:

  • 1 Week after Thanksgiving Day:
    o Avg. gain of ~0.1%
    o Up 49.4% of the time when it gained an avg. of 1.8%, down 50.6% of the time when it fell an avg. -1.6%
    o Biggest gain 10.03% in 1937 & Biggest drop -7.7% in 1987
  • Thanksgiving Day (As of Wednesday's Close) to Christmas:
    o Avg. gain of ~0.56%
    o Up 57% of the time when it gained an avg. of 3%, down 42% of the time when it fell an avg. -2.8%, ~1% flat in 1935
    o Biggest gain 11.76% in 1971 & Biggest drop -16.47% in 1931

Nasdaq Composite since 1971:

  • 1 Week after Thanksgiving Day:
    o Avg. gain of 0.16%
    o Up 65.8% of the time when it gained an avg. of 1.8%, down 34.2% of the time when it fell an avg. -3.1% o Biggest gain 5.73% in 1971 & Biggest drop -6.18% in 1974
  • Thanksgiving Day (As of Wednesday's Close) to Christmas:
    o Avg. gain of 1%
    o Up 61% of the time when it gained an avg. of 4.2%, down 39% of the time when it fell an avg. -3.9%
    o Biggest gain 16.05% in 1999 & Biggest drop -8.89% in 1973

Leading the Dow slightly higher today are: Caterpillar, Chevron , Boeing , DuPont, and Procter & Gamble .

Send comments to: bythenumbers@cnbc.com

bythenumbers.cnbc.com