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Unemployment to Peak at 10.5%: Moody's Economist

The U.S. unemployment rate reached 10.2 percent in October for the first time in over 26 years, even though the pace of job losses slowed. So what’s next for the market? John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Investors Service, shared his economic insights.

“Jobless claims have been on a distinctive declining trend beginning with the first week of April… But despite the drop in jobless claims, we find that since March, the number of unemployed individuals is up 19 percent,” Lonski told CNBC.

Lonski said he expects the November non-farm payrolls to show a loss of 140,000 jobs.

“It’s highly unlikely that payrolls will come in unchanged for the month of November, but if that were to be the case, that would very much diminish pressure being placed on Washington to address the job situation more vigorously,” Lonski told CNBC.

Lonski said unemployment should peak in the first quarter of 2010 around 10.5 percent and will see an improvement in the second quarter of 2010.

  • Watch Lonski's Previous Appearance on CNBC (Nov. 3 2009)

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Disclosures:

No immediate information was available for Lonski or his firm.

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