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Cramer's Market Theory

On Monday, Cramer asked, “Where did all the sellers go?” The Dow shot up 118-points and the S&P 500 rallied about a percent and a half.

Cramer has a theory to explain some of today’s action. Two weeks ago the market rallied in advance of the Massachusetts special election results. The market likes gridlock. The market likes it when no party is dominant.

But, when Massachusetts stunned the White House by voting Republican, President Obama blindsided the stock market by attacking the banks. And the nascent rally in important stocks like J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group , Wells Fargo , and Bank of America evaporated. It seems that the White House may have moved on to another target. This matters because a President angry at the stock market, which is synonymous with Wall Street, is a President angry with your 401k and your IRA, even if he doesn’t know it. So, without Obama’s focus on the banking sector, the banks can rally and the fear recedes.

Also, a number of different contributing factors helped as well. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index reported that the U.S. economy is still expanding, Greece didn't default this weekend, oil rebounded which helped some companies mostly in the tech sector that sell to Asia, like Cypress Semiconductor and Apple, to move higher and Exxon Mobil stock rallies after reporting a good result.

But this is a market that takes its cue from several important stocks, and two in particular, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, the two that had been most emblematic of the President’s wrath. They were able to rally even if JPM could move up only 69 cents, as opposed to Goldman’s magnificent $4 turn on. "And that action more than anything else that happend allowed the rest of the market to go higher," Cramer said.

How long can this last? Cramer said there’s a big set of hurdles, especially when you have to believe that to go higher, the U.S. must pick up the slack that China’s shutting down. “I think the bar is set too high for a sustained move up,” Cramer said. The sellers will come back when any one of these issues goes back to being negative.

“…2010’s not going to be as much fun or as profitable as 2009,” Cramer said. “The hope going forward is that unemployment does go down on Friday and that the President has finished venting his rage at Goldman.” As the markets rally, investors should take some winners off the table.

Cramer's charitable trust owns Apple, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.

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