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Too Dazzled By Google To Notice Smoke & Mirrors?

Most investors say Google looks like a winner, but not BGC analyst Colin Gillis.

He thinks investors may be so dazzled by the company that they're missing a fundamental problem - revenues will be flat this year.

Gills tells the Fast Money traders that “Google is a great company, there’s no question about it but the numbers are hot.” He first grew cautious doing research; after speaking with 850 ad executives.

Ad budgets will decline, broadly in 2010, he explains. And that’s a big problem for Google which relies on ‘paid clicks’ for revenue. “Click pricing that the Street expects to drive numbers higher are not going to be there.”

"With the stock trading about 20 times and the space on average trading at 19.5, it’s right in line.”

In other words, "Why would you want to buy Google right now," he adds "when estimates could come in too rosy."

As a result he has a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock.

Of course, Gillis is going out on a limb with this call. Google is one of the most ‘loved’ stocks on the Street. Take a look:

Analyst Ratings
Strong Buy 13
Buy 17
Hold 4
Sell 1

Source: CNBC.com

Bulls says the Internet giant will continue to dominate search and profit handsomely. And in case you're wondering Karen Finerman is still bullish.



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Trader disclosure: On February 2nd, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Najarian Owns (AAPL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (AA) Calls; Najarian Owns (AKAM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (CEPH) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (MET) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MS), Is Short (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (PFE); Najarian Owns (SPF) Calls; Najarian Owns (XLF) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO), (BKS); Finerman's Firm Is Short SPX Puts; Finerman Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC) Leaps; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (CVS), (FLS), (GOOG); Finerman's Firm Owns (KFT)

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