×

Greece, Worse Than We Think?

Brian Kelly of Kanudrum is so concerned about Greece he bought an Athens paper and hired a translator to find out what’s really going on.

And he’s learned that things may be worse than we think. According to the paper Athens discovered even more debt – to the tune of $40 billion euro.

”Greece is being asked to reduce their debt by $40 billion and this is an increase of $40 billion,” says Kelly. Not good.

The government of Greece insists it does not need a bailout and will have no trouble servicing its debt. Nonetheless, concerns over its fiscal problem pushed their debt protection costs to new highs on Thursday -- to the tune of 406 basis points, according to Markit Intraday.

That means it would cost $406,000 per year for five years to insure $10 million in Greece's debt.

In an effort to wrestle the situation under control, the European Union is urging Athens to cut the country's massive budget deficit, but there's already a backlash against the plan. It calls for pay cuts and tax hikes.

Considering these developments, what’s the trade?

It’s negative for the euro and positive for the dollar, says Kelly. I'd get long the dollar.

The strong dollar has obliterated the commodity trade, adds Joe Terranova. That's important to know too.


______________________________________________________
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to fastmoney@cnbc.com.

Trader disclosure: On February 4th, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Jon Najarian Owns (AAPL) Collar; Jon Najarian Owns (AXP) Collar; Jon Najarian Owns (BAC); Jon Najarian Owns (C); Jon Najarian Owns (CSCO), Is Short (CSCO) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (JPM); Jon Najarian Owns (PG), Is Short (PG) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (QCOM) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (WFC); Jon Najarian Owns (WMT), Is Short (WMT) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman Owns (AAPL); Fineramn's Firm Owns (BAC) Leap, (BAC); Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (GOOG); Finerman's Firm Owns (KFT), (PLCE), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM); Grasso Owns (ABK), (AAPL), (ASTM), (BAC), (BGP), (C), (COST), (CSCO), (FAZ), (PFE), (PRST), (WMT), (V); Terranova Owns (BAC), (JPM), (OIH), (GOOG), (EMC), (AAPL), (DELL), (MSFT); Terranova Is Short (OIH) Feb. Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WYNN)
Jon Najarian Owns (PG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (CVS)

For Steve Grasso:
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (ABX)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (GLG)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (NXST)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (ROK)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (TOL)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Are Short (CL)

For Joe Terranova
Terranova Works For (VRTS)
Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SKT)

For Brian Kelly
Kelly Owns (FXE) Puts
Kelly Owns (SPY) Puts
Kanundrum Capital Is Long U.S. Dollars vs. Short Euros
Kanundrum Capital Is Long Dollar vs. Short Swiss Franc
Kanundrum Capital Is Long Dollars vs. Short Yen
Kanundrum Capital Owns (WMT)




CNBC.com with wires