How Greece is Affecting Dollar, Oil & Gold: Experts

How will the European debt crisis affect the currency and commodities markets this week? Adam Cole, director and global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Tom Pawlicki, precious metals analyst at MF Global and Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, shared their views.

Currencies:

The EU finance ministers set Greece a deadline of May 15 to take "urgent measures" to rein in its budget deficit. Is the EU being firm enough?

“What you can say for the time being is that things have stopped getting worse. I think it’s far too soon to conclude that things are getting better,” Cole told CNBC. (Track Major Currencies Here.)

“What the market wants to see is the policies mentions being talked just about in vague terms: like public sector pay freezes, increases in tax collection rates come through in some sort of legislation in front of the Greek parliament,” he said. “But any hiccups, and the euro is in trouble again.”

Gold:

Meanwhile, gold prices rallied to a two-week high of above $1,100 an ounce as investors bought the precious metal to hedge against financial risk in the euro zone, and as the euro rebounded versus the dollar. (See Gold Futures Now)

However, Pawlicki said there is still some downside risk to gold.

“This whole thing is unrolling at a very slow pace and I don’t think that the breakout we’re seeing and the strength in the risk market is sustainable in that regard,” he said.

Oil:

In the meantime, oil rose over $75 per barrel, responding to a euro climbing higher against the dollar and supported by tensions involving Iran. (Oil and NatGas Prices Now)

“Oil at this point is anyone’s guess,” said Schork. “The EIA is giving a forecast of $76 a barrel for this spot contract to close, but these probability models suggest that there is a 65 percent chance that at some point this year, we’ll hit $95 a barrel.”

But on the other end of the bell curve, the probability is $65, he said.

“So considering that we’re already on one end of the curve, the odds suggest that we are going higher,” he concluded.

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Disclosures:

No immediate information was available for Cole, Pawlicki or Schork.

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