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March, Make Or Break Month For Goldman & Toyota

With the vultures circling, it looks like March will be a pretty important month for Goldman & Toyota. What’s the trade?

Goldman Sachs

As you first heard on Thursday’s Halftime Report, there’s growing sentiment that it might be a good idea to avoid Goldman – at least for a while.

On the heels of the bonus outrage Goldman finds itself linked to the financial troubles of Greece with the New York Times suggesting Goldman would benefit from further trouble abroad as holders of credit-default swaps; they would profit if Greece reneged on its debt.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised to investigate.

And rather than risk guilt by association, Sanford Bernstein analyst Brad Hintz tells us big investors will likely do business elsewhere.

“I don’t think Goldman did anything illegal,” Hintz says, but the prevalent sentiment has become why take chances. And that will results in "a less buoyant revenue line," Hintz says.

What’s the trade?

Hintz estimates GS could take a 4-6% revenue hit and I think that could translate into a 10%, even a 15% hit on earnings, says Gary Kaminksy. Place your bets accordingly.

I’m concerned that when the tape was better Goldman went from $195 to $160, adds Guy Adami. I would not establish a long position unless Goldman closes above $160.

Toyota

Days after CEO Akio Toyoda appeared before Congress to answer questions about the company’s massive recall, a House oversight committee says Toyota knew about potential problems -- in fact called it the "Books of Knowledge." -- but didn’t reveal any of the info publicly.

The committee learned about it from records it subpoenaed from a former top Toyota liability lawyer who is now suing the company over his dismissal.

In recent months Toyota has recalled 8.5 million vehicles world wide due to faulty gas pedals, brakes and some other issues.

The flurry of negative headlines and safety issues is starting to take its toll.A new survey by Consumer Reports shows a 10% drop among Toyota drivers willing to purchase another Toyota vehicle.

What's the trade?

Toyota is in the sights of law makers, muses Dennis Gartman. And I don’t expect them to ease up anytime soon.

I think the trade is Tata Motors, says Tim Seymour because they stand to benefit from the increased sales in emerging markets.

Toyota’s pain should be Ford’s gain, adds Guy Adami. I like it long-term. However if you’re a trader, I’d wait for a pullback.

Or look at Johnson Controls as a downstread trade, says Joe Terranova.


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Trader disclosure: On February 26, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Kaminsky Owns (EPV); Kaminsky Owns (LULU) Puts; Najarian Owns (AKAM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BAC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (CMC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (JDSU) Calls; Najarian Owns (MYL); Najarian Owns (TEVA), (TEVA) Puts; Najarian Owns (HK) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (HOLX) Calls; Najarian Owns (TEVA), (TEVA) Puts; Najarian Owns (MYL); Najarian Owns (JOYG); Najarian Owns (PFE); Najarian Owns (CELG); Najarian Owns (CEPH) Call Spread; Kelly Owns (AMZN) Calls; Kelly Owns (ELX) Calls; Kelly Owns (HOV) Calls; Terranova Owns (JPM), (AAPL), (EMC), (QCOM), (GOOG), (MSFT), (DELL), (IBM), (MSFT); Terranova Owns (GLD) March Puts; Terranova Is Long April, December Oil Futures; Terranova Is Long Oil Futures (April 2010, December 2010); Grasso Owns (AAPL)
Grasso Owns (BAC); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (INTC), (PBR), (TSL)

For Tim Seymour:
Seygem Asset Management Owns (POT)

For Joe Terranova
Terranova Works For (VRTS)
Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SKT)

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (ABX)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (BAC)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own Gold
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (TOL)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)

For Whitney Tilson
Funds Managed By Whitney Tilson Owned (BRK.A), (BRK.B) On 2/25/10

Tilson Owned (BRK.A), (BRK.B) On 2/25/10

For Dennis Garwtman
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Short S&P 500
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Short Euro
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Short Yen
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Short Steel
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Long Gold
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Long Natural Gas
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Yen, Are Long Canadian Dollar, Are Long Australian Dollar
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short (NUE)
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short (SPY)
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short S&P 500
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Gold
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short British Pound
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Australian Dollar
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Canadian Dollar
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Euro

For Mike Khouw
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. Is A Market Maker In (SPY)

For Brian Kelly
Kanundrum Capital Owns (DB)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (CS)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (C)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (JPM)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (GLD)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (GDXJ)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (BRCM)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (QCOM)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (VMW)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (ELX)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (QLGC)
Kanundrum Capital Is Long U.S. Dollar
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (GS)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (JWN)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short Euro
Kanundrum Capital Is Short Japanese Yen
Kanundrum Capital Is Short Swiss Franc
Kanundrum Capital Is Short Singapore Dollar

Other Relevant Disclosures:
Terranova Owned (QCOM) On 2/1/10
Najarian Owned (PFE) On 2/2/10


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