Sen. Claire McCaskill called Goldman Sachs "the bookie" in selling synthetic CDOs. ?
Now, real bookies are putting odds on what happens next to the Wall Street giant. ?
YouWager.com is an online casino based in Costa Rica which takes bets on everything from the average income tax return to which states will legalize marijuana for recreational purposes. ?
This week it's turned its oddsmaking expertise on Goldman Sachs. How ironic. ?
"Look for Goldman's stock to continue to soar," YouWager says. However, bet on "more executives to take the fall." ?
Sort of a mixed message. Kinda like hedging your bets. Or buying a CDS on a CDO. ?
Specifically, YouWager claims that if Goldman Sachs is put on trial for fraud, what will happen to the stock one week after a trial ends? Current odds say there's a 2-1 chance the stock will rise, regardless of the trial's outcome. So bettors are bullish on Goldman no matter what a court may rule. ?
YouWager is also looking at whether more Goldman executives will be named in the fraud case, beyond Fabrice Tourre.
The odds currently favor three executives being called to task by the end of the year, at 2-1 odds, followed by four or more executives getting nailed, at 5-3. The longest odds face those betting that no more executives will be added to the defendant's list, at 1-5. ?
Finally, if Goldman is cleared of wrongdoing, will the SEC change any rules and regulations? Probably not, claims YouWager, which says the odds of a rules change after an acquittal are 1-4.
Bet they're right? Assuming you could legally bet online in the U.S., would you put money on Goldman? More importantly, are your odds of success against the house better this time, compared to going long on a synthetic CDO...
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