With two days to go before the UK election analysts at Bank of New York Mellon have found that David Cameron's opposition Conservative Party is ever more likely to form a majority government, albeit with a very small majority.
Control of the British Parliament requires that a party wins a majority of the 650 seats in the House of Commons in a general election.
As a result a party needs to win 326 seats to ensure that they can form a majority government. (323 if you take into account that Sinn Fein will not take their seats for refusing to take oath of allegiance to the queen).
BNY Mellon says most analysts believe there will need to be a 9 percentage point swing against the ruling Labour Party for the Conservatives to form a majority government but highlights their performance in marginal seats will be the key as the votes are counted on the morning of Friday the 7th of May.
Since the first TV debate nearly three weeks ago, the market has believed we are facing a hung parliament after third party candidate, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg surged up the polls.
What the Polls Say
The latest polls show both a greater degree of uniformity in their results (compared to a month ago) and an improvement in the prospects of the Conservative Party after the final Leaders debate on TV.
The BBC’s Poll of Polls shows the Conservatives on 35 percent, Labour on 28 percent and the LibDems on 27 percent.
Were this to be reflected in Thursday’s election, then it would see Conservative seats in the House of Commons rise from 210 to 279, Labour fall from 349 to 262 and the Liberal Democrats climb from 62 to 80.
This would point to a hung parliament but BNY Mellon point to a Conservative win if the latest polls from key marginal seats are taken into account.
"Subsequent polls from marginal seats have painted a similar picture of gains for the Conservative party," according to BNY Mellon analysts.
"The Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals' poll conducted across 57 Labour-held constituencies shows that 36 percent of people in these seats now plan to vote Conservative and the same number prepared to vote Labour," they wrote.
"This compares with 35 percent last week who said Conservative and 38 percent who said Labour. This represents a 7 percent swing in support to the Conservatives from Labour compared with the last general election in 2005. This would put the Conservative Party on course for a majority of around 2 seats in the House of Commons," they wrote.
Two days is a long time in politics but after looking like they had blown their chance of winning power without the help of a coalition partner, David Cameron's team can again sense victory.