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Research and Markets: 2Q10 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Austria will have 13 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4e470f/2q10_austria_mobil) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q10 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Austria will have 13 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with T-Mobile Taking Market Share of 28.5%" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Austria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Austrian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Austria include: mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group), T-Mobile Austria (Deutsche Telekom AG), Orange Austria (Connect Austria), and Drei (Hutchison 3G Austria GmbH). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.

These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary: Stable subscriber growth continues in Austria's mobile operator space +7.5% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009 The number of total mobile subscribers in Austria has reached 11.32 million in 4Q.2009, up +7.5% from 4Q.2008. Hutchison (Drei) continues to be the leader in subscriber growth in Austria with a subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 52.6% in 4Q.2009 (up from 19.2% in 4Q.2008). On the other hand, the largest operator, mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group), saw its subscriber growth decrease from 13.6% in 4Q.2008 to 7.5% in 4Q.2009. T-Mobile's subscriber growth rate (YoY) declined from 3.9% in 4Q.2008 to 1.3% in 4Q.2009.

ARPU levels continue to decline across operators in Austria The industry average ARPU growth rate of -13.3% in 4Q.2009 The industry average ARPU growth rate (YoY) remains negative at -13.3% in 4Q.2009, down from -2.5% in 4Q.2008. The operator-wide average monthly ARPU in 4Q.2009 was 22.78. mobilkom austria's ARPU growth was -17.5% in 4Q.2009, down from 0.7% in 4Q.2008. T-Mobile's ARPU growth decreased to -7.7% in 4Q.2009 from -3.7% in 4Q.2008. Orange Austria's ARPU growth declined slightly to -4.5% in 4Q.2009 from -4.3% in 4Q.2008.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are declining at mobilkom -1.0% industry-wide MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009 The industry average MOU/Sub (Minutes of Use per Subscriber) declined to 198 minutes per month in 4Q.2009 (down -1.0% from 200 minutes in 4Q.2008). T-Mobile continues to see higher network usage numbers than mobilkom austria. In 4Q.2009, average MOU/Sub for T-Mobile was 245 minutes per month and that of mobilkom austria was 165 minutes per month.

Negative EBITDA growth at T-Mobile and Orange Austria in the latest quarter -8.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009 The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was -8.4%, significantly down from 18.6% in 4Q.2008. mobilkom austria's EBITDA growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was 6.1%, down from 15.9% in 4Q.2008. Orange Austria's EBITDA growth also declined to -35.3% in 4Q.2009, down from 4.1% in 4Q.2008. T-Mobile's EBITDA growth (YoY) turned negative to -13.8% in 4Q.2009, down from 35.6% in 4Q.2008.

So what is IEMRs Forecast? Total wireless subscribers in Austria to reach 13.1 million in 2014 According to our forecasting model, total wireless subscriber accounts in Austria will increase from 11.3 million in 2009 to 13.1 million in 2014.

mobilkom austria will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Austria. We forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 4.83 million in 2009 to approximately 5.6 million in 2014. T-Mobile will remain to be the second largest operator with 3.7 million subscribers in 2014. Orange Austria and Hutchison (Drei) will have the third and fourth places with 2.4 million and 1.4 million mobile subscribers respectively in 2014.

Hutchison's market share will be increasing over the next five years We think that larger operators will be losing market shares to Hutchison (Drei) over the next several years. Our model forecasts that Hutchison (Drei)'s market share will increase from 8.2% in 2009 to 10.7% in 2014. Accoding to our model, subscriber market shares of mobilkom, T-Mobile and Orange will be approximately 42.5%, 28.5% and 18% respectively in 2014.

ARPU levels in Austria will continue to decline from 2010 to 2014 Our model predicts that ARPU declines in Austria will continue over the next five years with the industry average ARPU reaching 21.05 in 2014. At the operator level, we expect that mobilkom austria will continue to receive the highest ARPU among other operators in 2014 at 21.23 per month. In comparison, we forecast that ARPUs at T-Mobile and Orange Austria will be lower at 20.82 and 21.00 respectively in 2014.

mobilkom austria will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than T-Mobile and Orange Austria We expect that mobilkom austria will continue to enjoy a higher level of EBITDA margin than T-Mobile and Orange Austria. We forecast that mobilkom austria's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain in the range of 42% - 43% over the next five years. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at T-Mobile and Orange Austria will be approximately 29.0% and 20.5% respectively in 2014.

Companies Mentioned: mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group) T-Mobile Austria (Deutsche Telekom AG) Orange Austria (Connect Austria) Drei (Hutchison 3G Austria GmbH) For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4e470f/2q10_austria_mobil SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Austria

Europe INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Technology

Mobile/Wireless