Research and Markets: 2Q10 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 2014: France will have 68.5 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets ( has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q10 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 2014: France will have 68.5 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Stable Monthly ARPU of 34 Over the Next Five Years" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the French wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for France include: Orange (France Telecom S.A.), SFR (Vodafone Group Plc), Bouygues Telecom, Orange's MVNOs, and SFR's MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.

These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary: Subscriber growth at Bouygues Telecom is increasing +5.4% industry-average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009 The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was 5.4% in 4Q.2009, up from 4.6% in 4Q.2008. Bouygues Telecom showed a strong wireless subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 7.9% in 4Q.2009, up from 3.7% in 4Q.2008. The largest operator, Orange (France Telecom), had a subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 4.5% in 4Q.2009, up from 4.0% in 4Q.2008.

Orange's MVNOs are also gaining more and more subscribers. Their subscribers increased by 29.8% (YoY) to reach 2.36 million in 4Q.2009.

ARPU level is declining in France -2.8% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009 The decreasing trend in ARPU continues. The industry average ARPU growth decreased to -2.8% in 4Q.2009, down from -1.1% in 4Q.2008. Oranges monthly ARPU was 32.83 in 4Q.2009, down -1.0% from 4Q.2008. SFR's monthly ARPU was 34.83 in 4Q.2009, down -2.4% from 4Q.2008.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber declining to 237 minutes per month -4.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009 The operator-wide average MOU/Sub (Minute of Use per subscriber) reached 237 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, down from 247 minutes per month in 4Q.2008. SFR (Vodafone) remains to be the operator with the highest MOU/Sub at 321 minutes per month in 4Q.2009. In comparison, Orange's MOU/Sub level is much lower at 192 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.

Negative EBITDA growth at Orange, SFR and Bouygues Telecom in the latest quarter Industry average EBITDA growth was -5.4% in 4Q.2009 The overall EBITDA growth (YoY) in France's wireless market was -5.4% in 4Q.2009. Bouygues Telecom's EBITDA growth (YoY) declined significantly from 13.2% in 4Q.2008 to -18.0% in 4Q.2009. EBITDA growth rates (YoY) were also negative at Orange and SFR at -2.6% and -3.7% respectively in 4Q.2009.

So what is IEMRs Forecast? Total wireless subscriber accounts in France to rise to 68.5 million in 2014 The wireless penetration rate is still below 100% in France, and this is relatively low compared to some other European countries such as Germany (with a wireless penetration rate of 132% in 4Q.2009). We forecast that total mobile subscribers in France will increase from 60.5 million in 2009 to 68.5 million in 2014. Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest operator. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 26.3 million in 2009 to 29 million in 2014. Our forecasting model also predicts that numbers of subscribers at SFR and Bouygues Telecom will be approximately 23.4 million and 11.8 million respectively in 2014.

ARPU levels will be stable in France's mobile operator space from 2010 to 2014 Although ARPU levels continue to decline around the world, we expect that ARPUs in the French wireless market will remain stable over the next several years.

Our model forecasts that Orange's monthly ARPU will remain at approximately 33 over the next five years. We think that SFR's monthly ARPU will also decline to about 33 in 2014. On the other hand, we expect that ARPU level at Bouygues Telecom will remain slightly higher at about 40 per month over the next five years.

EBITDA margins expected to decline at Orange over the next five years We forecast that Orange's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will decline from 40% in 2009 to 37% in 2014 while SFR's EBITDA margin remains at around 39% over the forecast period. Bouygues Telecom's profitability will continue to be lower than the largest two operators. We expect that its EBITDA margin will remain in the range of 27% - 29% over the next five years.

Companies Mentioned: Orange (France Telecom S.A.) SFR (Vodafone Group Plc) Bouygues Telecom Oranges MVNOs SFRs MVNOs For more information visit SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: United States



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