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Research and Markets: Oman Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a64579/oman_oil_and_gas_r) has announced the addition of the "Oman Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010" report to their offering.

Oman Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Oman's oil and gas industry.

The latest Oman Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.64% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 2.68% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.11mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 11.38mn b/d in 2009. It should average 11.66mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 12.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 22.88mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.83mn b/d in 2009. It is set to rise to 27.19mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 14.77mn b/d. This total had eased to an estimated 13.44mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 14.51mn b/d by 2014. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar.

In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 404.6bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 542.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 34.0% growth. Estimated production of 411.9bcm in 2009 should reach 655.4bcm in 2014 (+59.1%), which implies net exports rising to 113.0bcm by the end of the period.

In 2009, Oman consumed an estimated 3.21% of the regions gas, with its market share forecast at 3.13% by 2014. It contributed an estimated 6.56% to 2009 regional gas production, and by 2014 will account for 5.34% of supply.

For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.

In 2010, BMI is forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in 2009.

Oman's real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.7% in 2009, compared with 13.0% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.7% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 64,000b/d in 2009 to 82,000b/d in 2014. Partly state-owned Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) accounts for more than 90% of the oil and gas produced in the country but relies on international oil companies (IOCs) to maintain volumes. Our estimates assume 785,000b/d of 2009 production, with output peaking at an average 835,000b/d in 2010, before volumes sink to 730,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 35.0bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 27.0bcm in 2009.

Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 13.0bcm to 17.0bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 18.0bcm.

Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Omani oil production of 26.5%, with crude volumes peaking at 835,000b/d in 2010, before falling steadily to 577,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 104,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to peak at 35bcm by 2013-2015, before slipping to 28bcm by the end of the period. With 2009-2019 demand growth of 51.4%, this provides an export capability peaking at 18.5bcm in 2013, before falling to just 8.3bcm by 2019. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Oman now shares sixth place with Iran in BMIs updated Upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country's score benefits from a sound country risk profile, good licensing terms and a healthier privatisation trend than that seen elsewhere in the region. It is vulnerable to Iran's advances only if the bigger Gulf states risk profile improves. The country is in the middle of the league table in BMIs updated Downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but further progress up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fifth, ahead of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, owing to low scores for refining capacity, oil demand, retail site intensity and gas demand growth outlook. Healthy country risk factors, oil demand growth potential and moves towards deregulation and privatisation help bolster the overall score.

Companies Mentioned: Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) Shell Oman Marketing Company Oman Oil Company (OOC) Occidental Petroleum ORPC Total CNPC/Sinopec BP MOL RAK Petroleum PTTEP Petrogas Oilex Tethys Oil For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a64579/oman_oil_and_gas_r SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Oman

Middle East INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Energy

Oil/Gas