Research and Markets: Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c669fb/equatorial_guinea) has announced the addition of the "Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010" report to their offering.

Business Monitor International's Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas industry.

The new Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.03% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 3.50% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.57mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.63mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.08mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.77mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.64mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.83mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.83mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.07mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.75mn b/d by 2014.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 123bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 194bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 125bcm in 2009 to 191bcm by the end of the period. Equatorial Guinea in 2009 consumed an estimated 1.26% of the regions gas, with its market share set to be 1.02% by 2014. It contributed 2.71% to estimated 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 1.74% of supply.

For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.

In 2010, BMI is now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.

Equatorial Guineas real GDP is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 4.5% in 2009, compared with 10.1% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.6% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1,100b/d in 2009 to 1,400b/d in 2014. State oil company GEPetrols primary focus is to manage the interest stakes of the government in various production sharing contracts (PSCs) and joint ventures (JVs) with international oil companies (IOCs). Thanks to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from an estimated 360,000b/d in 2009 to 417,000b/d in 2014, peaking at the 2013 level of 425,000b/d before going into decline. Gas production should be around 6.7bcm by 2014, unchanged from the estimated 2009 level. Consumption is expected to rise from 1.5bcm to 2.0bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 4.7bcm in the form of LNG.

Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Equatorial Guinea oil and gas liquids production of 4.6%, with volumes peaking at 425,000b/d in 2013, before falling steadily to 376,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period.

Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1,800b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 7.3bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 62.9% between 2009 and 2019, there is scope for exports of around 4.8bcm. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Equatorial Guinea now holds 10th place above only Sudan in BMIs updated and enlarged Upstream Business Environment Rating. It is in a reasonable position to move higher over the medium term. The country's score benefits from moderate oil and gas output growth prospects and attractive licensing terms. The countrys risk environment is somewhat shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. The country is at the bottom of the league table in BMIs updated Downstream Business Environment Rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or refineries are built. It is ranked 11th, behind even Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.

Key Topics Covered: Executive Summary Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview Regional Market Overview Composite Scores Industry Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook Competitive Landscape Company Monitor Glossary Of Terms Companies Mentioned: GEPetrol ExxonMobil Marathon Oil Hess Noble Energy Repsol YPF Total For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c669fb/equatorial_guinea SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Equatorial Guinea