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Research and Markets: Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/267c1c/republic_of_congo) has announced the addition of the "Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010" report to their offering.

Business Monitor International's Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Republic of Congo's oil and gas industry.

The new Republic of Congo Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.20% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 2.72% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.57mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.63mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.08mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.77mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.64mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.83mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was exporting an average 4.83mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.07mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.75mn b/d by 2014.

In terms of natural gas, in 2009 Africa consumed an estimated 123bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 194bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 125bcm in 2009 to 191bcm by the end of the period. The Republic of Congo makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand. For 2009 as a whole we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010 we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.

For 2010 BMI is now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in 2009.

We estimate that the Republic of Congo's real GDP rose by 8.30% in 2009, compared with 7.68% in 2008, and we forecast average annual growth of 5.6% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 6,600b/d in 2009 to 8,400b/d in 2014. State oil company Socit Nationale des Ptroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Around a third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from an estimated 290,000b/d in 2009 to a peak of 350,000b/d in 2010, before easing to 323,000b/d in 2014. Gas production should reach 2.0bcm by 2014. Consumption is expected to track the production trend. Between 2009 and 2019 we forecast an increase in the Republic of Congos oil and gas liquids production of 0.6%, with volumes peaking at 350,000b/d in 2010, before falling steadily to 292,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 10,800b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be a need for imports or any potential for net exports.

Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

The Republic of Congo now shares sixth place with Egypt in BMIs updated and enlarged Upstream Business Environment rating. The country's score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The risk environment is shaky but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. The country is in the lower half of the league table in BMIs updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked ninth behind Sudan and Cameroon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and forecast GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country's low retail site intensity are its relatively strong suits.

Key Topics Covered: Executive Summary Republic Of Congo Energy Market Overview Regional Market Overview Composite Scores Industry Forecast Scenario Competitive Landscape Company Monitor Appendix: Long-Term Oil And Gas Forecasts Glossary Of Terms Companies Mentioned: Total Congo Eni Socit Nationale Des Ptroles Du Congo Perenco CORAF Lundin Petroleum PA Resources Murphy Oil Vitol Maurel et Prom SOCO International For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/267c1c/republic_of_congo SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Congo

Africa INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Energy

Oil/Gas