×

Research and Markets: 2Q10 Sweden Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Sweden will have 13.5 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/d95a62/2q10_sweden_mobile) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q10 Sweden Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Sweden will have 13.5 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Telenor Taking Market Share of 16.5%" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Sweden provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Swedish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Sweden include: TeliaSonera AB, Tele2 AB, Telenor Sverige AB, and Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.

These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary: Wireless subscriber growth in Sweden is slowing down gradually +7.3% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009 The number of total mobile subscribers reached 12.24 million and the wireless penetration rate was 131.3% in Sweden in 4Q.2010. In terms of subscriber growth, the industry average subscriber growth rate (YoY) declined from 9.8% in 4Q.2008 to 7.3% in 4Q.2009. 3 (Hutchison) continues to be the leader in subscriber growth in Sweden with a 27.3% YoY growth rate in 4Q.2009. Subscriber growth rates at TeliaSonera, Tele2 and Telenor were 6.2%, 6.1%, and 3.7% respectively in 4Q.2009. ARPUs are declining at TeliaSonera and Tele2 1.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009 A declining trend in ARPU (Average Revenue per User) continues in Sweden. The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -1.7% to reach SEK 218 in 4Q.2009. TeliaSoneras ARPU growth (YoY) was -3.2% in 4Q.2009, down from -2.1% in 4Q.2008. Tele2's ARPU growth (YoY) was -4.0% in 4Q.2009, up from -2.0% in 4Q.2008. On the other hand, Telenor's ARPU growth (YoY) turned positive in 4Q.2009 after 9 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Minutes of Use per Subscriber is stabilizing in Sweden +0.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009 The industry MOU/Sub growth (YoY) was 0.5% in 4Q.2009, down from 9.4% in 4Q.2008. Tele2 continued to lead Sweden's operators with its MOU of 235 minutes per month and MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of 4.0% in 4Q.2009. TeleSonera's MOU/Sub growth (YoY) turned negative to -3.0% in 4Q.2009, significantly down from 7.6% in 4Q.2008. Telenor also saw it's MOU/Sub growth decrease to 0.9% in 4Q.2009 from 6.3% in 4Q.2008. Telenor enjoyed strong EBITDA growth in the latest quarter +11.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009 The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 11.0% in 4Q.2009, significantly up from -7.3% in 4Q.2008. Telenor has been leading EBITDA growth in Sweden with 35.8% EBITDA growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009, up from -24.3% in 4Q.2008. TeliaSonera's EBITDA growth (YoY) was also positive at 13.9% in 4Q.2009, up from -2.1% in 4Q.2009. On the other hand, Tele2's EBITDA growth (YoY) remained negative at -7.9% in 4Q.2009, down from -5.7% in 4Q.2008.

So what is IEMRs Forecast? The Swedish wireless market will have 13.5 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014 We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Sweden will increase from 12.2 million in 2009 to 13.5 million in 2014. TeliaSonera will continue to be the largest operator in the country with about 6.2 million subscribers in 2014.

Tele2 will remain in second place with about 3.8 million subscribers while Telenor with 2.2 million will remain in third place in 2014, according to our forecasting model.

We do not expect significant changes in market shares over the next five years TeliaSonera will continue to have the largest market share in Sweden's mobile network operator space. We forecast that its subscriber market share will remain at approximately 46% over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014. We expect that Tele2 and Telenor will have market shares of about 28% and 16.5% respectively in 2014.

ARPU levels in Sweden will continue to decline over the next several years We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from SEK 201 in 2009 to SEK 193 in 2014. We think that Telenor will continue to receive higher ARPUs than TeliaSonera and Tele2, but its ARPU level will be declining. We forecast that Telenor's monthly ARPU will decline from SEK 269 in 2009 to SEK 243 in 2014.

TeliaSonera will be enjoying a higher level of profitability than its competitors We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will decline from 35.7% in 2009 to approximately 33% in 2014. TeliaSonera will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Tele2 and Telenor in Sweden. We expect that EBITDA margins at TeliaSonera, Tele2, and Telenor will be approximately 45%, 29%, and 25% respectively in 2014.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011 Companies Mentioned: TeliaSonera AB Tele2 AB Telenor Sverige AB Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/d95a62/2q10_sweden_mobile SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: United States

Sweden

Europe

North America

New York INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Technology

Telecommunications

Mobile/Wireless