There have been positive developments in his six-point plan for finally seeing a sustainable rally, too, with China successfully delivering a soft landing and the Spanish banks starting to stabilize. Plus, financial reform is close to passing, which will relief untold pressure on US banks as well. And, more importantly, investor sentiment has changed. We are at last at a point where the bulls can trump the bears, something that hasn’t happened for some time.
This means that “good news can matter again,” Cramer said. It means positive data can stand up to what seems like the market’s overwhelming negativity. Stocks aren’t ready to soar higher just yet – not with BP’s spill, high taxes and unemployment concerns – but we’ve finally found news, namely from China and Europe, that generates gains that hold. Therefore, here’s the Game Plan for the coming week:
As Cramer said on Wednesday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange IPO will be the even to watch. He expects incredibly high demand for the offering, which would be a big positive for the market. In fact, it will have “huge implications for the exchanges and the market as a whole,” he said, “so keep an eye on it.”
Best Buy , “the ultimate barometer for discretionary spending,” Cramer said, reports on Tuesday before the opening bell. Investors will be looking for earnings of more than 50 cents a share on revenue of at least $10.94 billion, and in particular we want to see improving demand for new products, sales of big-ticket items and better pricing trends. Cramer said he thinks there’s a chance BBY disappoints. The best play one the stock then might be buying both the June 40 puts and calls to bet on the move either way because a lot of hedge funds have shorted the stock. Right now the smart move is on the volatility of the trade, not the direction.
On Thursday, watch the earnings reports of J.M. Smucker and Pier 1 Imports . Cramer likes Smucker for its Folgers acquisition, and he thinks PIR has taken a terrible beating, dropping 13% since he recommended it on April 20.
There is macroeconomic data to watch, too. Wednesday’s housing starts and building permits will show how important low mortgage rates are to the industry. While Cramer predicted a drop because of the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit, a number that simply holds up will prove that rates are more important.
Cramer also will be watching May’s Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday. He’s hoping for a little inflation as a sign that the economy is strengthening.
Lastly, Friday is options expiration. This matters because we have had one really weak day during each options-expiration week, so we could see some “unnatural trading” midweek as a result.
“So if you’re itching for an opportunity,” Cramer said, “wait for the down day.”
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