China Yuan Move NOT a Big Deal

China's announcement that they are loosening the trading bands on the yuan is good for the trade imbalance with the United States, but traders think that the idea we should all rush out and buy, say, Caterpillar

or BHP Billiton just on probably incorrect.

Why? First off, the currency is not really floating — they will keep the swing to an 0.5 percent swing on a daily basis. That's not a float, that's managing the currency.

Second, businesses don't change their strategy on such small moves in a currency. Traders tell me that the market was already pricing in a 2 percent repricing this year.

The more sophisticated traders seem to understand this. Indeed, volume is surprisingly light today even for the big industrial and commodity names.

Which brings me to my other point: there is a very big "fade any rally" mentality right now. Traders believe the end of the first-half trade is helping support stocks right now.

But after that..into July, sentiment is more bearish off of:

1) More conservative guidance for the second half of the year, and

2) Higher tax rates.

How bad is it to fly? I flew to West Palm Beach, Florida over the weekend to see my father; down on US Air , back on Continental .

1) Both flights were full — completely. Every seat occupied.

2) The cost: $350 round trip. To fly to Florida. In June. On top of that: US Air now offers to give you seats closer to the exit — but charges $10 more. That's right: $10 more to sit closer to the door — the seat is the same as everywhere else. And $35 to check a bag. Continental offered to give me a little extra leg room, for $38.

3) casual chats with cabin attendants revealed that the analysts are indeed right about airlines getting more profitable: a) more butts, in b) fewer seats, with c) higher prices.

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Questions? Comments?