×

Strategist: Stocks Reach Cheapest in 60 Years

The U.S. stock market is the cheapest since 1951, according to a model comparing earnings valuations to corporate bond yields. The S&P 500 has a so-called earnings yield of 9.1 percent, which when compared to corporate bond yields at 6.1% forms the largest gap in six decades, wrote Michael Darda, chief strategist and economist at MKM Partners.

Darda calculated the ‘earnings yield’ by taking the inverse of his current market multiple of 11, which is based on the trailing four-quarters corporate profit data released in the GDP report. This method is similar to the ‘Fed Model’ allegedly used by Alan Greenspan, which took the earnings yield and compared it to government bond yields.

“We thus continue to believe stocks have overshot to the downside and that there is value in equities for investors with horizons beyond seconds, minutes, hours, days or weeks,” wrote Darda in the report. “The S&P 500 has fallen to valuation levels below those seen at the market lows in October 2002, October 1990 and December 1987. We’d be more concerned if the credit markets were in worse shape.”

The model shows that corporate balance sheets and earnings power are in astronomically better shape according to bondholders than the equity market believes.

So why aren’t stocks taking off on this deal of a generation? For one thing, these models have been thrown off recently by a trend of compressing P-E ratios alongside falling interest rates. The 10-Year Treasury note yield fell below 2.9 percent today. In the past, when interest rates fell, investors were willing to pay more for the return potential in equities, and multiples increased.

It would seem equity investors are concerned more about macroeconomic factors, such as deflation and a possible double-dip recession, than actual earnings. Darda’s calculations show either stocks are incredibly cheap or earnings are about to fall off a clip because of some sort of macroeconomic event.

For the best market insight, catch 'Fast Money' each night at 5pm ET, and the ‘Halftime Report’ each afternoon at 12:30 ET on CNBC

______________________________________________________
Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your message to fastmoney@cnbc.com.

Trader disclosure: On July 1, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MON); Adami owns (AGU), (BTU), (NUE), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Adami’s wife works at Merck; Terranova owns (MON), (AGU), (KO), (XOM), (TEVA), (RDS.A), (GMCR), (UPL), (GS); Terranova is short gold; Terranova owns (GLD) July 123 puts; Terranova owns (GS) JULY 130 CALLS; Terranova owns (GS) JULY 135 CALLS; Grasso owns (ASTM), (ABK), (BAC), (BGP), (C), (CSCO), (DYN), (JPM), (LPX), (MO), (NDAQ), (PFE), (PRST)

For Steve Grasso:
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (BAX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (COG)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (DHR)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (DYN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (IP)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (MERC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SYMC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TBT)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TRV)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (AAPL)

For Patty Edwards
Edwards owns (AAPL) for clients
Edwards owns (AMZN) for clients
Edwards owns (BAC) for clients
Edwards owns (BBY) for clients
Edwards owns (C) for clients
Edwards owns (COP) for clients
Edwards owns (CVX) for clients
Edwards owns (DELL) for clients
Edwards owns (DO) for clients
Edwards owns (F) for clients
Edwards owns (GE) for clients
Edwards owns (GLD) for clients
Edwards owns (GOOG) for clients
Edwards owns (GLW) for clients
Edwards owns (HAL) for clients
Edwards owns (HPQ) for clients
Edwards owns (INTC) for clients
Edwards owns (JPM) for clients
Edwards owns (JNK) for clients
Edwards owns (MOS) for clients
Edwards owns (MS) for clients
Edwards owns (MSFT) for clients
Edwards owns (NE) for clients
Edwards owns (NSC) for clients
Edwards owns (NVDA) for clients
Edwards owns (PNC) for clients
Edwards owns (QQQQ) for clients
Edwards owns (RIG) for clients
Edwards owns (SLB) for clients
Edwards owns (SPY) for clients
Edwards owns (STI) for clients
Edwards owns (STM) for clients
Edwards owns (TM) for clients
Edwards owns (TM)
Edwards owns (TSLA) for clients
Edwards owns (TTM) for clients
Edwards owns (TXN) for clients
Edwards owns (UNP) for clients
Edwards owns (VXX) for clients
Edwards owns (VZ) for clients
Edwards owns (WFC) for clients
Edwards owns (WFT) for clients
Edwards owns (XOM) for clients
Edwards owns gold for clients
Edwards owns platinum for clients
Edwards owns silver for clients
Edwards owns the Russell 2000 for clients
Edwards owns the S&P500 for clients

For Joe Terranova
Terranova works for (VRTS)
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (DRYS)

David Riedel
***No Disclosure***

Ashraf Ladhi
***No Disclosure***

Joe Lavorgna
***No Disclosures***

Carter Worth
***No Disclosures***

Richard Kang
Funds Managed By Kang Own Shares Of Aluminum Corp. Of China
Funds Managed By Kang Own (STP)

Rich Greenfield
***No Disclosures**

Wayne Hood
***No Disclosures***

Brian Stutland
Stutland owns (TLT)
Stutland owns US Treasuries

Added Disclosures:
Seymour Owns (MSFT)
Seymour Owns (QCOM)
NBC Universal Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Edwards Owns (PM)
Edwards Owns (PM) For Clients
Edwards Owns (CBI) For Clients
Seymour Owns (INTC)
Edwards owns (HD) for clients