WHEN: TODAY, FRIDAY, AUGUST 27TH
WHERE: CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX"
Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with James Bullard, President of St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, today, Friday, August 27th on CNBC's "Squawk Box" at 8:30AM ET.
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
BULLARD ON BEING READY TO MOVE:
I THINK THE COMMITTEE GAVE A SIGNAL THAT WE ARE READY TO MOVE IF CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER. THAT WAS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH MY THINKING.
BULLARD ON A SOFTER ECONOMY:
I DON'T THINK THERE IS A QUESTION THAT THE ECONOMY LOOKS SOFTER THAN WHAT WE EXPECTED AS RECENTLY AS 90 DAYS AGO. WE ARE ALL CONCERNED ABOUT THAT. I THINK THE QUESTION IS, YOU KNOW, WHAT MOVES TO TAKE GOING FORWARD.
BULLARD ON THE GDP:
THE HEADLINE NUMBER ISN'T AS BAD AS WHAT WAS EXPECTED. RIGHT. I THINK THE MARKETS ARE PROBABLY BAKED IN SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE THAN A REVISION DOWN. GROWTH HAS SLOWED IN THE SECOND QUARTER, NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. WE ARE IN A SOFT PATCH FOR THE ECONOMY. IT'S A DIFFICULT SITUATION FOR MONETARY POLICY. WE HAVE TO COME UP WITH THE RIGHT RESPONSE.
BULLARD ON DOUBLE DIP:
I DON'T THINK A DOUBLE DIP IS LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED BUT IT IS STILL POSITIVE. THAT'S WHERE WE ARE. OF COURSE, IT MAKES EVERYONE NERVOUS, OF COURSE. IT'S A LITTLE BIT WEAKER. I THINK WE'LL GET REASONABLE GROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF AND IMPORTANTLY, I THINK GROWTH WILL PICK UP IN 2011 AND WILL BE BACK ON TRACK.
BULLARD ON POS OUTLOOK 2011:
I THINK THE RECOVERY HAS GONE VERY WELL, REASONABLY WELL GIVEN THE SEVERITY OF THE SHOCK AND GIVEN THE DIFFICULT OF THE SITUATION IN LATE 2008 AND EARLY 2009 UNTIL THIS SPRING WHEN APPARENTLY IT SLOWED DOWN. THAT'S THE DATA WE HAVE BEEN GETTING THROUGH THE SUMMER HERE. THE MONETARY POLICY IS EXTREMELY ACCOMMODATING, AN ULTRA LOOSE POLICY WITH NEAR ZERO INTEREST RATES SUPPLEMENTED WITH QUANTITATIVE EASING. NOW THE COMMITTEE POSSIBLY CONTEMPLATING MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. SO I THINK WE HAVE DONE A LOT HERE. WE HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL AND THE BIG PICTURE, IT'S TRUE THE MOST RECENT DATA IS WEAKER THAN WE'D LIKE, BUT I THINK THE OUTLOOK IS POSITIVE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE YEAR GOING INTO 2011.
BULLARD ON THE BALANCE SHEET:
GOING FORWARD, IF WE TRY TO DO MORE THAN JUST KEEP THE BALANCE SHEET CONSTANT, I THINK IT SHOULD BE A DISCIPLINED PROGRAM WHERE WE DO TELL MARKETS WHAT WE INTEND TO DO. WE MAKE MOVES, BUT AS WE WOULD DO WITH INTEREST RATES WE HAVE AN IDEA WHAT THE FUTURE PATH MIGHT BE.
BULLARD ON QUANTITATIVE IMPACT:
WHEN WORKING WITH SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES, WE HAVE A LOT OF DATA, LOTS OF HISTORY ON HOW IT WORKS. YOU CAN ARGUE ABOUT THE EFFECTS. WHEN WORKING WITH QUANTITATIVE EASING WE DON'T HAVE THAT LUXURY. BUT STILL, I THINK THERE ARE IMPORTANT IMPACTS. FRANKLY, JUST FROM THE LAST MEETING, YOU CAN SEE THAT THERE'S BEEN A PRETTY LARGE MOVEMENT IN TREASURY RATES ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. SO THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT TRY TO ARGUE THAT, WELL, THIS WON'T HAVE ANY IMPACT. I DON'T BUY THAT. I THINK IT HAS A BIG IMPACT.
BULLARD ON THE HOUSING BUBBLE:
ONE THING I WILL SAY ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT IS SURELY SOME OF THIS IS STRUCTURAL -- SOME. I THINK THE DEBATE IS HOW MUCH. LET'S EXPLAIN -- I JUST WANT TO SAY, YOU KNOW, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT -- AT LEAST OUR RHETORIC IS YOU HAD A HOUSING BUBBLE AND THE BUBBLE BURST. SURELY THAT MEANS THAT SOME RESOURCES, SOME LABOR RESOURCES WERE ALLOCATED TO THE WRONG INDUSTRIES. THOSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GET REALLOCATED TO OTHER INDUSTRIES. THAT HAS TO BE SOME COMPONENT OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT WE ARE LOOKING AT. SO NOT EVERYTHING IN THERE IS JUST CYCLICAL BECAUSE OF THE BURSTING OF THE BUBBLE.
BULLARD ON THE HOUSING FLAT:
I THINK HOUSING HAS FALLEN TO SUCH A LOW LEVEL THAT I REALLY THINK IT'S JUST GOING TO BE FLAT FOR A LONG TIME.
BULLARD ON BERNANKE:
HE'S DEFINITELY GOT COMPLETE SUPPORT, I THINK, OF THE COMMITTEE, CERTAINLY A HUGE MAJORITY OF THE COMMITTEE.
BULLARD ON OUTLOOK 2011:
IT LOOKS LIKE GROWTH WILL BE SLOWER IN THE SECOND HALF BUT STILL POSITIVE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR AND THEN WE'LL GO INTO 2011. I STILL THINK GROWTH WILL PICK UP IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2011.
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