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Research and Markets: Slovakia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010 - Between 2010 and 2019, We Are Forecasting an Increase in Slovak Oil Consumption Of 29.9%

DUBLIN, Nov 12, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2e0707/slovakia_oil_gas) has announced the addition of the "Slovakia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010" report to their offering.

The Slovakia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovakia's oil and gas industry.

This latest Slovakia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.39% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing no significant contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn b/d in 2001 will rise to a forecast 6.02mn b/d by the end of 2010.

It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and will average an estimated 13.67mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.47mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 638.6bcm in 2010, with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of a projected 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period.

Slovakias share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 0.89%, while its share of production is negligible. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.92%. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous years level. BMI forecasts Slovak real GDP to rise by 3.1% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.6% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/2010, oil consumption is forecast to rise rapidly, averaging around 2-3% per annum. There is scope for oil consumption to reach 93,000b/d by 2014. This volume will be imported, largely from Russia. Natural gas demand may also rise at a more rapid rate if the power industry builds new gas-fired plants, although the residential gas market is close to saturation. Our forecast is for Slovakia to be consuming 6.7bcm of gas by 2014, virtually all of which will be imported.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovak oil consumption of 29.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 83,000b/d to 108,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to up from an estimated 5.7bcm to 8.2bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Slovakia now shares 13th place with Croatia in BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores.

It is now ranked equal 11th with Ukraine in BMIs updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Licensing, privatisation and country risk factors help its score, although these are offset by hydrocarbons weakness. Over the medium term, Slovakia is at some risk of being left behind by Ukraine.

The country is also near the bottom of the league table in BMIs downstream Business Environment Ratings. Only in oil demand growth potential does the country score particularly well, and progress further up the rankings from 13th place seems unlikely over the medium term. Country risk factors are generally favourable and there is an established competitive landscape. Bulgaria and Croatia are just one point below it in the rankings, and both countries have the potential to mount a challenge for Slovakias 13th place in the long term.

Key Topics Covered: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis Slovakia Energy Market Overview Global Oil Market Review Oil Price Forecasts Business Environment Oil And Gas Infrastructure Company Monitor Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms Companies Mentioned: Slovnaft OMV Slovakia Slovensk Plynrensk Priemysel (SPP) Transpetrol JKX Oil And Gas Shell BP Eni Nafta Aurelian Oil and Gas For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2e0707/slovakia_oil_gas SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Slovakia

Europe INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Energy

Oil/Gas