Research and Markets: Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010 - Gasoil in 2010 is Expected to Average US$93.23/Bbl

DUBLIN, Nov 12, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets ( has announced the addition of the "Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010" report to their offering.

The Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's oil and gas industry.

The latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.42% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 6.02mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 will average an estimated 13.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.47mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 638.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republics share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 1.49%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 2.06% by the end of the forecast period.

For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009.

The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous years level. Czech real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 2.2% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.3% in 2010-2014. Assuming an average post-2009 rise in consumption of 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 228,000b/d in 2014 implying imports of at least 218,000b/d. In spite of a privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming that gas demand will rise by an annual 4% from an estimated 9.5bcm in 2010 to around 15.0bcm by 2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Czech oil consumption of 18.6%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 196,000b/d to 237,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise 88.4% from an estimated 9.5bcm to 17.9bcm by 2019, met by imports. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

The Czech Republic takes eighth place, behind Ukraine, in BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds 14th place in BMIs updated upstream Business Environment ratings, ahead only of Slovenia. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. The Czech Republic is just in the upper half of the league table in BMIs downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It takes seventh place, ahead of Kazakhstan. Refining capacity is among the regions lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and for oil demand growth.

Population and GDP per capita also work against the country, but gas demand growth is relatively high. Kazakhstan below is likely to challenge the Czech Republic over the medium term.

Key Topics Covered: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis Global Oil Market Review Drifting With The Tide Quarterly Trends Deepwater Turbulence Global Oil Market Outlook Waiting For The Wind To Change Oil Price Forecasts Business Environment Ratings Business Environment Macroeconomic Outlook Table: Czech Republic Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Company Monitor Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms Companies Mentioned: Unipetrol Shell Czech Republic OMV CR Eni Cesk Republika Moravsk Naftov Doly (MND) PKN Orlen Carpathian Resources Gazprom Others For more information visit SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Czech Republic