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Happy Holiday Melt-up Season?


Stocks made further gains on Monday pushing the S&P 500 to a two-year high, continuing the steady upward march many investors, including Fast Money's Tim Seymour, believe will continue in 2011.

"I don't see any selling," he says. "I think we just began the holiday melt-up season. I see no data that will get investors nervous."

Investors largely stayed with sectors that led the December rally, including financials , energy and materials stocks.

"We have seen this year-end rally refuse to give up any ground," adds Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in a Reuters interview. "The combination of improving economic data, additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the extension of tax cuts kept equities in demand."

Guy Adami sees another reason to be bullish into year's end. "I don't think the market gives people this long an opportunity to sell the highs," he says. Like Tim says there's nothing to indicate a sell-off is on the horizon.

However Barry Ritholtz of Fusion IQ thinks any enthusiasm will be short lived.

"Money is now flowing out of bonds and into stocks and that potentially sets up the top," he says. "It's not imminent but the last move of the rally will be when Main Street belatedly piles in." He goes on to say, "tops don't happen until Mom and Pop have jumped in with both feet and we're likely to see that over the next two quarters.

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NASDAQ PUSHES HIGHER
With Apple and Amazon pushing the Nasdaq to its highest levels in 2 years.

What's the tech trade?
In this space I’m still excited by Mercado Libre, says Tim Seymour. They’re both Amazon and eBay all wrapped into one.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of IPOs in tech in 2011, adds Joe Terranova. I’d bet Groupon IPOs.

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AMERICAN EXPRESS RUINS CHRISTMAS?

American Express was the biggest loser in the Dow Monday after Stifel downgraded the stock, citing the Fed's proposed debit card swipe fee regulations.

Should you buy the dip or run for the hills?

I’m a buyer on this pullback, says Guy Adami. The sell-off appears overdone.

I wouldn’t step infront of a heavy volume sell-off likes this, counters Carter Worth. The issue for me isn’t that the stock could go down more; it’s that I think the prospect of it bouncing back is very low.


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CUCKOO FOR COMMODITIES IN 2011?

The Fast Money desk is closely watching action in the CRB Commodities Index , which touched 2 year highs.

Gains were largely triggered by published reports that suggested China won’t raise rates for at least a year -- which investors took to mean China was taking its foot off brake.


What’s the trade?

I expect to see a lot more money flow into commodity funds, says Joe Terranova.

I like steel and I’d play it with GGB, says Tim Seymour. They’re starting to get pricing power.

I’m keeping my eye on gasoline, says Guy Adami. It seems like gas wants to go much higher. I expect we see it with a high 3-handle.

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BEST COMMODITY TRADE: COAL?

FBR is recommending coal for Christmas: they increased their 2011 price targets on Cloud Peak Energy , Consol Energy and Patriot Coal to “outperform” from “market perform.”

Meanwhile Fast Money friend Dennis Gartman tells us, “The case for coal is very compelling... the Chinese story is still there…we have to remember here in the U.S. (up to) 49% of our electricity is generated from coal, if we have any increase in GDP we'll get a pickup in coal.”

How should you trade it?

In the coal space I like to separate those companies that sell to steel and those that sell steam coal for power generation, says Brian Kelly.




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Trader disclosure: On December 20, 2010, following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Seymour owns (AAPL), (BAC), (FXI); Terranova owns (CRM), (VRTS), (C), (UPL), (PEP), (GS), (OXY), (NKE); Terranova owns Gold puts; Adami owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Adami's wife works at (MRK); Pete Najarian owns (BBY) calls; Pete Najarian owns (C); Pete Najarian owns (GE); Pete Najarian owns (MS); Pete Najarian owns (PFE); Pete Najarian owns (V) call spreads; Pete Najarian owns (YHOO)

For Joe Terranova
Terranova is Chief Market Strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ALK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CCG)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EPR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (KRC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLE)
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Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DRYS)

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CARTER WORTH
Worth has no disclosures

MIKE KHOUW
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (AAPL)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (AMGN)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (AMZN)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (APSG)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (AXP)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (BBT)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (BAC)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (CACI)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (CVC)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (C)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (CHK)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (CLD)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (CSCO)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (DELL)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (DWA)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (EBAY)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (FCX)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (GE)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (GS)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (GOOG)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (HBAN)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (JPM)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (LVS)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (MA)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (MANT)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (MSFT)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (MS)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (NFLX)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (NILE)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (ORCL)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (PCX)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (RIMM)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (SLE)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (T)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (V)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (VZ)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (WFC)
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (YHOO)

BARRY RITHOLTZ
Ritholtz has no disclosures on (AAPL) or (NFLX)

DOUG KASS
Kass has no disclosures on gold

JOE LAVORGNA
LaVorgna has no disclosures

RICH GREENFIELD
***NO DISCLOSURES ON TWX, VZ, GOOG, MSFT, CVC, DWA, RGC

ALEX HAMILTON
Hamilton has no disclosures.

JOE TERRANOVA FAST FIRE SOT
Terranova did not own eBay on 11/24/2010



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