Forgive me for being ever so slightly optimistic two days in a row, but we're getting some improving numbers on the commercial real estate market, and it's worth noting.
Yes, delinquencies in commercial mortgage backed securities are still rising and still a big headwind, and yes trophy properties in the big markets are faring far better than second and third tier markets.
I'm not saying it's on fire, but it's on the upswing.
Today I heard from two experts in the sector who seemed quite bullish. First, Sam Chandan of Real Capital Analytics. Next week he will put out a report saying that 2010 saw $115 billion in commercial real estate transaction volume, up from $54.6 billion in 2009 (up 111 percent!).
Chandan: "Commercial real estate investment momentum has been building through the year, culminating in December in the strongest monthly sales activity since 2007. Apart from firming pricing, investors have been supported in recent months by a sharp improvement in credit availability and indications of more stable property fundamentals. There are still real challenges ahead of us, such as the management of legacy distress and risks from rising interest rates, but the tailwinds are clearly pushing investment forward on the path to normalization."