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The Bull Market Has Come So Far, Yet So Far to Go...

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The markets have come a long way during the 2-year old bull market. At 2 years “young,” according to Bespoke Investment Group, the current bull market still isn’t even half the length of average bull market cycles since 1940 (the average is over 1,600 calendar days).

In fact, the current bull market has already stretched longer than the 517-day bear market from October 9, 2007-March 9, 2009.

Bulls have roared back, but there’s more headway to be made.

Although the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 are just 3% below their 2007 highs, the broader markets still have some ground to make up. From their October 2007 highs, the S&P 500 is still down 16% and the Dow Industrials is down 14% - albeit that’s a lot better than where they both stood in March 2009.

Additionally, U.S. markets have recovered better than many other major markets overseas. Since October 2007: China is down 48%, Japan is down 39%, France is down 31%, Australia is down 27%, Singapore is down 19% and Hong Kong is down 16%.

The Financial sector has performed the best in the S&P 500 since March 2009(up 169%), but it has fallen the most since October 2007, losing over half of its value.

Other sectors like Industrials (up 141%) and Materials (up 122%) are still down double-digits from their October 2007 levels. Even airlines , which have been a standout (up more than 246% over the past 2 years), are still down 8 percent from 2007 levels. Likewise, semis are up 135% since March 2009, but still down 10% since October 2007.


Although many sectors are still in the red since the markets hit their highs, there are a handful of positives. Consumer staples, consumer discretionary and technology stocks have all managed to eke out small gains since October 2007.

Although each of the Dow 30 stocks is up since March 2009, only a little more than one-third of the index’s components are up since the Dow hit its all-time high nearly 3.5 years ago. In fact, of the 12 Dow stocks that are up triple digits in 2 years (i.e., more the doubled in value), more than half of them are still in negative territory since October 2007 (BAC, AA, GE, AXP, BA, JPM, MMM).

The Financial sector has performed the best in the S&P 500 since March 2009(up 169%), but it has fallen the most since October 2007, losing over half of its value.

Other sectors like Industrials (up 141%) and Materials (up 122%) are still down double-digits from their October 2007 levels. Even airlines , which have been a standout (up more than 246% over the past 2 years), are still down 8 percent from 2007 levels. Likewise, semis are up 135% since March 2009, but still down 10% since October 2007.


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