Greek Debt Restructuring Looks Inevitable

Futures are weaker, the Greek stock market is down 2.2 percent this morning as many seem to believe that some kind of restructuring of Greek and possibly Portugese debt is inevitable. There is talk that rather than an outright default this would entail simply extending the maturity of the debt. But since this would clearly violate the terms of the contract it would be hard to not call that a default.

European banks like ING (ING), Deutsche Bank (DB), and Credit Suisse (CS) down 2 to 4 percent.

Also not helping stock futures: initial jobless claims weaker than expected, and March Core PPI (ex-food and energy) at 0.3 percent, higher than the 0.2 percent expected. PPI at up 0.7 percent was below expectations.


1) Hot IPO prices above range. Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) priced 73.5 m shares at $17 per share, well above the initial price talk of 62.5 million shares at $13-$15. The company (the name means "Golden Arches" in Spanish) is the largest franchisee of McDonald's, with 1,755 restaurants in 19 Latin American/Caribbean countries. Based in Buenos Aires, the company is a perfect fit for emerging market funds eager for new stock to add to their investments.

Mark Haines, Erin Burnett and I will interview CEO Woods Staton at 9:55am ET on "Squawk on the Street."

2) The Blame Game: the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations issued a 637 page report on the causes of the financial crises. The usual suspects surface: regulators asleep at the wheel...recklessness on Wall Street...large financial firms (AIG, Countryside, Merrill, Cititgroup) creating trillions of dollars of defective agencies like or Moody's or S&P as enablers, paid by people issuing the securities...cogs in the wheel of destruction, as Phil Angelides called them...

What about everyone who wanted to increase home ownership? Even Angilides admitted that government housing policy created ground cover for what happened...all backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Here's a link to the press release and the report.

3) Supervalu (SVU) soars 13 percent its Q4 earnings handily topped expectations ($0.44 vs. $0.34 consensus). Although same-store sales fell 5 percent, margins were better than expected and the supermarket chain kept its costs in check. Also helping shares: strong guidance for the current fiscal year ($1.20-$1.40, above $1.18 consensus). But that comes as the company expects continued sales declines (comps seen down 1.5 percent-2.5 percent this year).

4) Hasbro (HAS) shares are 2 percent lower after Q1 earnings missed estimates ($0.12 vs. $0.17 consensus). Overall sales were flat as strong sales of toys for boys (up 25 percent) offset steep drops in sales of preschool toys (down 18 percent), toys for girls (down 13 percent), and games/puzzles (down 12 percent). Also of note, international sales growth (up 15 percent) far exceeded sales numbers in North America (down 8 percent).

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