Facebook's Odds

You know you're big when people decide to start betting on you.


Facebook is now that big.

Bodog.com has launched a series of odds on Facebook's future.

"Facebook is an ever growing social media network," says Adam Young, Bodog's head oddsmaker. "We are always looking to throw up props or odds on anything that is talked about in the media and gives people some alternatives to just betting on sports."

There are three propositions Bodog is making odds on:

1) Will Facebook hit one billion users by January 2012?

Facebook is more than halfway there. The "yes" odds are +150, and the "no" are -200. That means if you bet $100 on yes, you'd win $150, but to collect $100 on no, you'd have to bet twice as much—$200. Since "no" costs more, it's the favored odds, meaning the market does not think Facebook will reach a billion users by the end of this year.

2) Which will happen first, Facebook goes public or hits one billion users?

Becoming public is +110, hitting a billion users is -150, meaning the market thinks Facebook will double in size before it goes public.

So, bottom line, the odds suggest the betting money doesn't believe Facebook will hit a billion users this year, but it will reach that goal before going public.

There is one Facebook idea the oddsmakers really "like": current odds are six to one that a sequel to the movie "The Social Network" will begin by January 2013.

Even in Hollywood, that might be a safe bet.

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