The Currency Trade Behind Greece's Woes


Are you itching to try your hand at trading the euro, given all the news about sovereign debt risk and upheaval at the IMF?

Don't, says Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank.

"The debate about Greek debt restructuring among European officials has moved from behind the scenes and secret meetings to very much a public discussion," Bourdeau told CNBC's Melissa Lee. "Some European officials are in favor of a soft debt restructuring, and the European Central Bank remains very much against it," which will make for choppy trading.

But while Bourdeau doesn't want to trade the euro, she has identified a trade that takes advantage of the change in risk appetite caused by the goings on in Europe. To capture the new risk-off sentiment in the currency markets, Bourdeau recommends buying a classic safe-haven currency - the Swiss franc - and selling the New Zealand dollar.

"Typically in turbulent, volatile market times that are risk off, commodity currencies suffer," she says. "I chose the New Zealand dollar out of the commodity currencies because the Royal Bank of New Zealand won't be hiking its policy interest rate anytime soon," so the kiwi will likely lag other currencies that are similarly linked to commodities.

Bourdeau recommends selling the kiwi against the Swiss franc at 0.700 with a stop loss of 0.7090 and a target of 0.6745.

You can watch the whole discussion right here.


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