What's Wrong with This Euro Zone Picture?

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The bickering continues in Europe as a critical deadline looms for Greece — but you wouldn't know it from watching the euro against the dollar.

Another Monday, another round of bickering in Europe.

Greece may not be able to meet its credit obligations after mid-July without additional aid — but for that to happen, the Greek government would have to tackle a new five-year fiscal plan, and the Germans and the European Central Bank would have to reach agreement on next steps by June 20, according to Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon.

Unfortunately, we're really not there, Derrick said. "The signs over the weekend were not that positive" in Greece, and the ECB and Germany appear far apart, he added. Meanwhile, another shoe dropped at a rating agency when Standard & Poor's lowered Greece's credit rating deeper into junk territory.

What happens if the bickering doesn't stop? Nothing good, said Derrick.

"A failure to achieve a workable agreement by the end of the Eurogroup meeting next Monday threatens the real risk of what Wolfgang Schauble described last week as the first unorderly default within the euro zone," he said.

Scary stuff — and you can tell plenty of investors are thinking that way if you look at the safe-haven Swiss franc, which is hitting new highs against the euro. Meanwhile, the euro is up against the dollar. Plenty of investors are bearish on the dollar, but really, what's wrong with this picture?


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