The euro had a big runup after the Greek crisis was temporarily resolved, but traders are flummoxed about next moves.
It's been quite a week for the euro, huh? In a week when Greece managed to pass an austerity budget, staving off crisis for now, the single currency rose more than 2% and at one point hit a three-week high.
Problem is, where should traders focus now? The Greek chorus of bad news was easy to trade on. But now it's not clear whether to go long in anticipation of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank, or steer clear because of soft manufacturing data—and that's just for starters.
Omer Esiner, chief market analyst for Commonwealth Foreign Exchange, echoes the views of many investors when he predicts a 25 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank in the coming week, and says that "The euro's near-term outlook has brightened considerably."
But at over $1.45, it's not clear how much good news remains to be priced in, and there have been some disappointing economic reports from the euro zone of late that could hurt the euro. Also, as Esiner points out, "The still uncertain outlook for Greece should ultimately keep its gains somewhat limited."
At the end of the day, it may come down to your time horizon. If you're focused on the central bank's actions in the next few days, that may point to one trade, and if you're looking down the road—where, in all likelihood, the Greek crisis is waiting to meet us again—that may point to another.
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