The Gohd Standard: The Happy Days Market

NetNet - The Gohd Standard
NetNet - The Gohd Standard

Matt Gohd is worried.

The "what me worry" market that preceded a six-week decline in the markets was followed by the "what do I do now" market rally. Now investors are happy and complacent again.

"It's the happy days are here again market," Gohd says.

Gohd is the contrarian investor at Revere Securities to whom I often turn for insights into market psychology. When he sees the market taking a "happy days are here again" attitude, it means he thinks we're in for a nasty downturn.

So how to play the Happy Days market? Well, Google , a former favorite of Gohd's, is up 10 percent in two weeks. Time to get out. The Chinese Internet names, which Gohd thought were a good buy after they got badly beaten down in the market this spring, are up 40 percent. Time to reverse that trade. LinkedIn is up 35 percent. Can you guess what Gohd thinks?

"Gold did nothing in the depths of the Greek crisis. Now it's rallying. It is over-owned, over-hyped and overplayed. I think we could see a 15 percent drop," Gohd told me.

Is there anything worth going long in?

"The one interesting idea is Cisco as a long with rumors of [CEO John] Chambers taking over at Treasury. That could create a restructuring and a 30 percent move in Cisco," Gohd says.

Keep in mind that Gohd is a trader and may or may not hold positions in all of the investments he mentions.

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