On intrade.com, the prediction marketwebsite followed by market and political insiders, the President is at a 49.6 percent chance of winning the election. While that may not sound dire to you, the fact is this is the first time the President has been below 50 percent.
Some of my political c-suite contacts who support the President told me after seeing this number it is a significant number and tell me with unemployment where it is, the GOP have a good chance in winning the election if they can put up a viable candidate.
Chuck Gabriel Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners says although Intrade as a predictor has been often uncanny over the last few election cycles, the market for individual political futures contracts isn't always liquid enough to be a scientific indicator.
"It seems less remarkable amid today's economic malaise that President Obama has lost altitude to the point that as many as half of Intrade speculators now doubt his reelection. This event shows how the forces have finally worn away the aura he had had at the outset. What will matter far more is how the 'President.Dem.2012' trades after Republicans begin to settle on a competing nominee next winter or early spring, and as we near the traditional Labor Day countdown more than a year from now," Gabriel said.
Of course 2012 may as well be a million years away because politics changes so quickly but the betting markets were right in predicting Bush would win Florida in 2004. We'll have to wait and see but this trade is one worth watching.
A Senior Talent Producer at CNBC, and author of "Thriving in the New Economy:Lessons from Today's Top Business Minds."
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