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No Currency Crisis for Europe: Danske Bank

The euro zone will be able to avoid a currency crisis despite a debt crisis plaguing the region as Asian central banks continue to buy the currency, shying away from the dollar amid doubts over the health of the US economy, Danske Markets’ chief analyst at told CNBC on Wednesday.

Stacks of 5-Euro bills
AP
Stacks of 5-Euro bills

“The US will probably be downgraded one or two notches within the next year,” John Hydeskov told CNBC.

“We think the euro will fare quite well against most currencies. Simply because we are seeing especially Asian central banks building up reserves in euro now,” he said.

“We’ve seen that for China.

They are downsizing purchases of US assets.” Danske Markets has raised its dollar/euro

forecast quite substantially from 1.36 to 1.50.

“That seems like a big move but we have had really big changes in financial markets,” Hydeskov said.

“The most notable change is that we will probably not have more rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year," he said.

"We’ll probably have to wait until perhaps next year or even wait until 2013.” That leaves some upside for dollar/euro , in Hydeskov’s view.

He warned that the debt crisis in Europe needed to be seen as separate from developments in foreign exchange markets, as the euro has been “extremely resilient”.

“People have been fundamentally short euros prior to this debt crisis …and they have been long dollars for a long time. We have seen challenges for the US that no one could have foreseen,” he said.