On Thursday investors were trying to determine if bulls were off to the races after new economic data presented the market with an unexpected and positive surprise.
Specifically, the latest data showed that exports totaled $178 billion in July – a new record. That means American companies generated more money selling things like cars, airplanes and machinery than ever before.
In fact, US exports were so strong they helped shrink the trade deficit to a 3-month low.
"It was a very good number," says trader Brian Kelly.
And in addition, new jobs data came in relatively strong, showing that companies were not increasing lay-offs significantly despite all the chatter about a double-dip.
Considering the new data suggests the US economy isn’t nearly as bad as feared and stocks are largely considered cheap -- shouldn't the S&P rally. Is the trade long stocks?
Not so fast.
According to Fast trader Brian Kelly the big problem is that the export figures were backward looking. Going forward he doesn’t see a compelling reason for exporters such as Caterpillar to rally.
”Who are they exporting to? They’re exporting to China and Europe – countries where the economies are slowing down.”
He reminds that money pros are always looking ahead. “You’ve got to look down the road 6 months. Do you think those economies are going to be stronger or weaker 6 months from now? I think weaker. I'm not a buyer.”
Trader Stephen Weiss agrees entirely. And he sees another challenge for the S&P and exporters – the US dollar. “I believe the dollar is going to get stronger which makes our goods much more expensive and much less attractive to foreign markets.
Guy Adami is also a rally skeptic. He says, “if the market was a believer in the export data the S&P would be exploding already and its not.”
In fact, Adami thinks the current upward momentum in the market is about to die out.
And if you watch key levels, as he does, Adami says to keep a close eye on 1235. “If the S&P can break above that level, I’ll re-evaluate but until that happens I think the market is broken”
SHOULD GOLDMAN BREAK IN TWO?
Goldman Sachs has fallen on hard times; the stock is trading near a 52-week low and investors are becoming more concerned about the future.
So what can Goldman do to create more value for shareholders? Maybe consider a split?
Reuters breaking views editor Rob Cox thinks it might be the best move.
Get all the details. Watch the video now: