×

Dennis Gartman: Greek Default Is Looming

It has become a matter of when, not if, Greece will default, renowned currency and commodities trader Dennis Gartman said Monday.

“It is going to happen sometime,” Gartman predicted. “Give it time. Who knows when that time is, but it’s going to happen.”

The Greeks simply do not pay their taxes, Gartman argued, adding the country is “profligate.” He said Germany, on the other hand, is unwilling to continue to pay for the “profligate nations in the south.” In turn, the problem won’t go away until Greece defaults, at which point the question becomes whether it’s allowed to leave the monetary union.

“Under the laws, under the Lisbon treaty, there is technically no way they can,” Gartman said. “But when somebody wants to leave or when somebody is forced to leave, it’s going to happen.”

As a result, Gartman thinks any rally in the euro/U.S. dollar cross should be sold. In just over a week, it went from $1.45 down to $1.34. The euro could bounce back to $1.38 in the next few days, but at that point, it should be sold.

In the long-term, Gartman thinks the euro will continue to fall. By the end of the year, Gartman thinks the euro could fall to $1.25.

Author Stephen Weiss, however, is much more bearish on the euro. In six months to a year from now, he thinks the euro will trade down to par with the dollar. He recommends shorting the euro.

If you think the euro could collapse, Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel recommends looking at the companies with the most exposure. McDonald’s and Phillip-Van Heusen , for example, are a few names to avoid. Grasso said he has money in a retail hedge fund, which is pulling all of its money out of companies with European exposure and putting it into European shorts.

Speaking of retail, Patty Edwards of Trutina Financial would avoid companies with European exposure. She cited Abercrombie & Fitch as an example.

______________________________________________________
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment, but not have it published on our Web site, send those e-mails to fastmoney@cnbc.com.

Trader disclosure: On Sept. 12, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Jon Najarian owns call spreads in (ANF). Jon Najarian owns call spreads in (AAPL). Jon Najarian owns call spreads in (XOM). Jon Najarian owns (CIGX). Patty Edwards is long (XLK). Steve Cortes is long (JPM). Steve Cortes is long (COP). Steve Cortes is long (QCOM). Steve Cortes is long (AAPL). Steve Cortes is long (NS). Steve Cortes is long (ETP). Steve Cortes is long (X). Steve Cortes is long (TWM). Steve Cortes is long (SDS).

Patty Edwards
Trutina is long (AMZN)
Trutina is long (AAPL)
Trutina is long (C)
Trutina is long (GOOG)
Trutina is long (MSFT)
Trutina is long (GLD)
Trutina is long (ORCL)

CNBC.com with wires.