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Worried about Recession, Don’t Put the Cart Before the Horse!

Think the economy is on the brink of something terrible? You're not alone.

Plenty of investors are worried, especially after new data showed retail sales stalled in August.

And other reports have been equally dismal - there was no employment growth in August, while claims for jobless benefits rose in early September.

Although the headlines make the economy look bad, chief economist Joe LaVorgna tells us they're a bit deceiving.

He says, the latest data shows the economy is growing about 2% in the current quarter. “Right now we’re not in recession,” he says.

And he sees plenty of 'tells' that suggest recession isn’t on the table – at least for the time being.

”If you look at the index of leading indicators the index is growing,” he says. We’ve never had a recession while it was growing. And he’s also looking at the spread between 5 years and 10 years Treasury yields. “5 – 10’s is relatively steep and we’ve never had a recession unless that spread went to zero or inverted.”

All told, that suggests to LaVorgna that we've escaped recessionary throws - at least for the next 3-6 months.

Check out our entire conversation. Watch the video now!





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