Is Greece Headed for Tragedy, or Just More Drama?

AP

Greek Labor Unions Strike

Greece has to approve an austerity plan before the "troika" - the IMF, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission - release aid.

Here's how to trade the drama.

Things are rough in Greece today, what with workers on strike ahead of an austerity-plan vote in Parliament.

But Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital, expects the plan to go through, since Greece has to approve the reforms in order to receive more aid from the "troika" of the IMF, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission.

That's good news for the euro, right? Not exactly. Busch thinks a lift in the euro if the austerity plan goes through, or if the troika approves the aid, would be an opportunity to sell. "Either the troika agrees to give Greece the money or they don't," he told CNBC's Melissa Lee. "The first is a temporary positive, and the second is a big negative."

Busch recommends selling the euro against the dollar at 1.3940 with a stop at 1.4055, and he suggests taking profits at 1.3650.

The trade "is going against the overall trend of risk-on trades, but I think it makes sense in this sequence of events," he says.

You can watch the whole discussion on the video.

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