On Friday chatter on the floor had everything to do with the underlying message in the market and what to make of it.
The Dow and S&P logged their worst Thanksgiving week since 1932, when the nation was in the thick of the Great Depression.
Considering a statistic like that, investors were all but desperate to determine whether the S&P was on the brink of something serious.
With the short session and light volume on Friday, trader Mike Murphy said “you’ll get the real tell on Monday.” And with the market trading so technically, he and the other Fast Money pros suggested keeping an eye on 1155. That’s a key Fibonacci level, specifically, it’s the 50% retracement of the entire up-leg from the Oct 4 low of 1068 to the Oct 27 high of 1289.25.
We know that's confusing but in a nutshell it means how the S&P behaves at 1155 will be a ‘tell’ for pros who watch technicals. (It's worth noting, our pros made the comment on Wednesday and on Friday the S&P closed within a few points of 1155.)
Therefore, on Monday, if the market bounces higher, that would be considered a bullish sign because it would signal that the key level of 1155 did, infact hold.
By contrast if the S&P goes much lower it would be considered bearish because the key level failed.
All week long the Fast Money pros have discussed their bias - both higher or lower. Here’s what was said.
Trader Joe Terranova thought the more likely scenario was a bounce. ”Black Friday and Cyber Monday should be catalysts,” he said back on Tuesday November 22nd. And he may be right.
Early signs pointed to bigger crowds at the nation's malls and stores as shoppers flooded retailers like Target and Macy's, kicking off the holiday shopping season with a bang.
Pete Najarian was also bullish. On Monday he said, "We're not seeing the Vix explode above 40. I'd expect more volatility if we were on the brink of a major sell-off."
Amid a pullback, Najarian was a strategic buyer.
"Look at rails that have been beaten down – CNI under $75 and Mosaic in the ag space – are attractive. Also big Pharma. I think there are definitely opportunities."
Carter Worth was also relatively bullish. “ I don’t see anything in the individual charts that's terribly bad,” he said on Monday.
However not all of the market pros that we spoke with were optimistic. Abigail Doolittle thought the market wanted to trade down to at least 1120, if not lower.
She cited a breakdown between the euro and S&P. “Monday was the first time in a long time that we didn’t see the equity markets follow the euro on an intra-day basis,” she said.
And BofA technical analyst Mary Ann Bartels said on Friday Nov. 18th that she was looking for the S&P to again trade down to 1100, the lowest close of the year.
