Is the Euro On Track for a New Year's Hangover?

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Seasonal factors on top of fundamental challenges are weighing on the euro.

After all the crises and failed summits, you may well be wary of the euro. Jens Nordvig, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura Securities, sure is - and not just because seasonal patterns don't bode well.

"We have to focus on the seasonality early in the year, but I think underlying that there is a structural weakening trend," Nordvig told CNBC's Melissa Lee, "and that is set to continue in the first quarter."

How far could the euro fall?

"I personally wouldn't be surprised to see a parity move during 2012," Nordvig says. "It's not going to be in the next couple of weeks, but if something goes wrong - we could have some political accident happening - we should be open minded that parity is in play next year."

Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital, isn't that bearish, but he is no fan of the euro either, especially at this time of year.

Busch reviewed six years of euro prices and found that the currency fell into February in four of the past six years, and was basically neutral in one other. "That's a nice seasonality to work with," he says.

Fundamental and political factors are also weighing on the euro, Busch says, so he wants to sell it against the dollar. He would wait for a spike higher and then sell at 1.3150 with a stop at 1.3310 and a target of 1.2670.

Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, thinks the euro could move lower - but he argues that if it reaches 1.25, he would expect it to reverse course and rally all the way to 1.30.

You can watch the whole discussion on this videotape.



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