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Risk On? Not Until Treasurys Stay Above 2%: Terranova

If you follow technicals, chances are you’re all bulled up.

The S&P 500closed above its closing high hit last October, something pros are calling a technical breakout and the pattern could spark more buying.

But according to trader Joe Terranova, even if that happens, don’t take the gains out as a sign of full out ‘risk-on.”

Terranova says that would be a mistake.

“What’s happening in the market is – people are getting less defensive,” he explains. “Into the end of the year, investors were very cautious.”

And although he thinks in the near-term there could well be a chase for performance if you're a long-term investor Terranova would not dive into the market head first. “Not until I see the 10-year stay above 2%.” he says.

If and when that happens, Terranova would consider the higher yield a sign that money pros are really embracing risk by rotating out of Treasurys and into equities. But not before.

Trader Mike Khouw voices the same concern.

“Not only are 10-year Treasury rates remaining below 2% but Italian rates are high,” he says. “Both of those things are very troubling.”

Karen Finerman shares the concern.

She also concedes that there could be a chase for performance but says “it’s hard to jump in here if you don’t think Europe is solved – and I don’t.”

For the second half of 2011 the market was whipsawed by negative overseas headlines and despite reports that Europeis sorting out its debt issues – Finerman thinks another shoe will drop.

Dan Nathan thinks further gains could actually embolden the bears. “The higher we go in the near term the greater the drop if you’re bearish,” he reminds.





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Trader disclosure: On January 10, 2012 , the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Nathan is long AAPL Jan puts; Nathan is long BAC Jan puts; Nathan is long MS Jan puts; Nathan is long NFLX Jan calls; Nathan is long INTC Jan put spreads; Nathan is long MSFT puts; Terranova owns APC; Terranova owns OXY; Terranova owns XOM; Terranova owns VRTS; Terranova owns IBM; Terranova owns CSCO; Terranova owns AXP; Terranova owns SBUX; Terranova owns CSX; Terranova owns SWN; Terranova owns AXP; Finerman is short AAPL calls; Finerman owns BAC; Finerman owns JPM; Finerman is short IBM calls; Finerman is short MSFT calls

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